This year, the favorite is a high school student from Utah, but the favorite hasn't taken home the crown since Carrie Underwood. It won't happen this year, either. Our early betting line:
10.Kristy Lee Cook: Some might say that if her botched version of a 1965 Beatles song didn't eliminate her, nothing will. But the audience, I think, forgave her rendering of a twang-tinged "Eight Days a Week" because it was, after all, the judges who suggested she go country. She's also survived on memories of a brilliant version of "Faithfully" and the fact that people finally had enough of one-trick pony rocker Amanda Overmyer in last week's vote. But barring a major flub by one of her contenders, Kristy will be history on Wednesday.
9.Ramiele Malubay: Mature viewers will never forgive her bland treatment of one of the Beatles' most introspective songs, "In My Life." So far, the 20-year-old is surviving on her Brenda Lee-like ability to belt out a song despite her small stature - Dusty Springfield's "You Don't Have To Say You Love Me" comes to mind. Cuteness, though, doesn't win "American Idol" - and that's one its major attributes.
8.Chikezie: He was the odds-on favorite for elimination two weeks ago until he stole the show with a rocking version of "She's A Woman" that would be at home on contemporary radio. But the 22-year-old is otherwise old school, and the stylings of Luther Vandross, Larry Graham and Teddy Pendergrass have long since seen their day.
7. Brooke White: I like her, I really do, but I don't buy much new music, anymore. And that's precisely Brooke's problem. People who do buy new music don't appreciate her spot-on Carole King/Carly Simon impersonations. She can sing - "Let It Be" and "Love Is a Battlefield" are prime examples - but she's seriously a few decades out of touch.
6. Michael Johns: With such odd song choices as "A Day in the Life" and "Across the Universe," neither of which suits his on-stage demeanor, this Aussie singer would seem be an equally odd choice as a favorite. Evidently, though, he has some female appeal, and as he proved a few weeks ago, can deliver the goods when he picks the right material, as on "Light My Fire." He is not, however, destined for the Top Five.
5. Jason Castro: Like Brooke, Jason is stuck in a time warp, but unlike her, he has a legion of young female fans. He also has a good sense of music, knows how to project sincerity and delivers the goods. "Hallelujah," "Daydream" and "If I Fell" were impressive tributes to the halcyon days of folk music. (I'd have chosen "Here Comes the Sun" over "Michelle" last week, but the fact that he survived that misstep underlines his appeal.) He's star material, and like Daughtry, will succeed with or without an "Idol" crown.
4. Syesha Mercado: An average singer with a great personality, which has inexplicably won over the judges and voters week after week. Simon Cowell is obviously smitten or he'd have pegged her for what she is - a very good lounge singer. She deserves props for song selection ("Tobacco Road!"), and with her charm and looks, might well become a fixture on Broadway if not on the Billboard charts.
3. Carly Smithson: Each season, one brilliant singer drops into the bottom three prematurely. Last week, it was this Irish lass's turn. She's not much on song choice (the forgotten "I Drove All Night" and the archaic "Shadow of Your Smile") but when you've got the voice, the talent and the looks, you can hire someone else to pick your tunes. If she nails Mariah Carey week (which will no doubt focus on contemporary music), she could win it all.
2. David Archuleta: He's been deemed to be this year's "Idol" winner for weeks, but it's not going to happen. His appeal is limited to young girls and moms, and they are the minority of voters this year. While he's an excellent, if somewhat rote singer, his "aw shucks" shtick is wearing thin. It's also surprising that the judges have yet to call him on his overly safe choices. It's true his "Imagine" could be a hit today - a 17-year-old's take on America's future (which is how it was perceived) is potent indeed - but how tough is it to tackle "Another Day in Paradise" and "Long and Winding Road"? He struggled mightily with "We Can Work It Out," mostly because it was outside his mellow moods forte. With his staged shyness and safety net songs, I smell a stage mom. Not a good thing.
And this year's American Idol is ...
1. David Cook: Surprised? Don't be. He should have had you at "Hello." At first blush, Cook is a methodical rock singer, and he does front his own band. But he's also a master at picking songs that suit his voice and shock and awe viewers and judges alike. Can you imagine the lead singers of Linkin Park, Maroon Five or Matchbox 20 attempting a Lionel Richie song? Cook did, and his "Hello" has been the highlight of the "Idol" season thus far. He was equally adept, if not as far-fetched, in adapting "Eleanor Rigby," "Daytripper" and All Right Now." I sense he'll handle country and soul week equally as well. Ladies and gentlemen, the 2008 American Idol is ... David Cook.
Tube tidbits
One of the more interesting aspects of "Idol," which continues to draw twice as many viewers as any other show on television, is that it's picking up male viewers at the same time it is losing female fans. Nielsen Media reports that the biggest increase is in men ages 25-54 (up 10 percent), while the major decline is in women ages 18 -34 (-22 percent). Overall, viewership is on par with previous seasons ... If there was any doubt that ABC was canceling "October Road" and "Men in Trees," it became obvious last week when the network offered the shows to Lifetime, which said "no thanks." ... The network also is bringing back "According to Jim" for an eighth season, unless the announcement was meant as an early April Fool's joke ... HBO's new "John Adams" attracted a lackluster 2.5/2.8 million viewers in its first two outings. I'd suggest ignoring the tepid reviews and gathering the family around the set. It's fascinating history and compelling television. Not to mention that David Morse projects the perfect George Washington ... Fox already has given up on "Canterbury's Law," which it jettisoned to Fridays, where it will replaced the evidently axed "Return of Jezebel James."