It's often difficult to read how a team will react to new things - coaches, players, schemes - particularly because many teams don't show too much in the preseason. So how those changes will affect a team is something that needs to be seen for a few weeks before it can properly be judged.
But as the Steelers prepare to open the season against the Cleveland Browns in head coach Mike Tomlin's first game, the oddsmakers have installed them as 41/2 -point favorites. That sounds a little low in this case.
Cleveland is an improved team this season, but not to the point where the Browns will be a contender for a playoff spot in the rugged AFC.
And the Steelers have the look of a team that may not be in the top tier of teams, but is certainly in that next group of five or six clubs who will be battling for a postseason berth. They have their warts to be sure, but the overall talent is far superior to Cleveland's.
The Steelers have dominated the series in recent years, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings and that shouldn't change this week.
Take Pittsburgh to win and cover as the pick of the week, 24-13.
Kansas City (plus 3)
at Houston
Who's idea was it to do a TV show on the Chiefs' training camp? Anybody who watched that program on HBO knows that this Kansas City club is in trouble, especially since star running back Larry Johnson will be limited early in the year after skipping most of training camp. Houston's not a great team by any stretch, but should be able to handle the Chiefs at home.
Take Houston, 20-14.
Denver (plus 3)
at Buffalo
The talk of the preseason has been how Buffalo's J.P. Losman is a quarterback ready to take the next step and become a superstar. Sorry, I'm not buying it, especially this week against Denver's secondary. New Denver running back Travis Henry also began his career in Buffalo before the Bills got rid of him when they drafted Willis McGahee. How did that work out? Henry should be highly motivated against his old club.
Take Denver, 27-20.
Jacksonville (plus 61/2)
at Tennessee
Why are the Jaguars giving 61/2 points on the road to a Tennessee team that nearly made the playoffs last year? Mostly because the Titans dumped practically every good offensive player they have - including Henry - in the offseason, save for QB Vince Young. But the Titans aren't bad.
Take Tennessee to cover and win outright, 17-16.
Carolina (minus 1)
at St. Louis
Carolina is a team many feel could contend again in the NFC, but I really like St. Louis this season as a surprise team. The offense is explosive and the defense should be better this season.
Take St. Louis, 27-24.
Philadelphia (minus 3) at Green Bay
Donovan McNabb is back for the Eagles and looks healthy as he returns from a knee injury that forced him to miss most of the second half of last season. This will probably be Brett Favre's last hurrah this season.
It won't begin well. Take Philadelphia, 31-17.
Atlanta (plus 3)
at Minnesota
What a quarterback matchup - Joey Harrington versus Tavarius Jackson. The Vikings are better defensively than Atlanta. That should be the difference.
Take the Vikings, 13-9.
Miami (plus 3)
at Washington
The Dolphins will be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season, but Washington isn't far behind in that conversation. The Redskins are playing at home and will unleash their two-headed rushing attack of Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts.
Take Washington, 23-17.
New England
(minus 61/2) at N.Y. Jets
This is a strange line. The Patriots are everybody's favorite to win the Super Bowl this season. The Jets, meanwhile, handed in their Cinderella slippers at the end of last season.
Take the Patriots, 30-14.
Tampa Bay (plus 6)
at Seattle
The Bucaneers couldn't travel any farther for their opener unless they were leaving the country. Seattle is usually pretty tough to beat at home.
Take Seattle, 24-10
Chicago (plus 6)
at San Diego
One of the marquee matchups of the first week pits a couple of possible Super Bowl contenders. But as we saw when Indianapolis dismantled New Orleans Thursday night, there's a difference between a contender in the AFC versus one in the NFC.
Take San Diego, 23-13.
Detroit (plus 2)
at Oakland
Hard to believe the Raiders are favored to beat anybody after their pitiful season last year. But Daunte Culpepper is a huge upgrade at quarterback compared to the bums the Raiders ran out last season.
Detroit will be improved this season, but Oakland's defense is pretty good.
Take the Raiders, 20-17.
N.Y. Giants (plus 6)
at Dallas
The Cowboys should be motivated to get new head coach Wade Phillips a win to open the season. The Giants may be motivated to get head coach Tom Coughlin fired as soon as possible.
Take Dallas, 31-21.
Baltimore (plus 21/2)
at Cincinnati
Cincinnati's defense still has many problems. Baltimore's defense won't be as good this season as it was last season, but the Ravens should be able to get a win here.
Take Baltimore, 23-21.
Arizona (plus 3)
at San Francisco
This is an intriguing game of two teams who are improving, but likely aren't ready to take the next step just yet. It should be a shootout and if that's the case, I like Arizona's talent a little better. Plus, 49ers running back Frank Gore will be seeing his first action after sitting out the preseason with a broken hand.
Take Arizona, 31-30.