The Patriots defeated the Chargers in the AFC Championship, 21-12, last season, the final victory of New England's season.
Many also were picking those same two teams to meet in this season's AFC Championship.
But both have major problems.
New England lost quarterback Tom Brady in the first game of the season, but still has a 3-1 record. Few are picking the Patriots to continue to be a consistent winner with Matt Cassell leading the offense instead of Brady.
San Diego, meanwhile, lost linebacker Shawne Merriman for the season after its opener and running back LaDainian Tomlinson has been struggling, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
The result has been a 2-3 start that has the Chargers in dire need of a turnaround.
The Chargers are a five-point favorite, which, considering how they've been playing, might be a bit generous.
Then again, the Patriots played in San Francisco last week and are on the West Coast again this week. Usually that would be a sure sign of trouble.
But the Patriots stayed on the West Coast following their victory over the 49ers last week. Sleeping in a hotel, however, is nothing like sleeping in your own bed.
San Diego needs the win much more than New England.
Take San Diego, 24-17
Carolina (plus 11/2 )
at Tampa Bay
The Panthers are playing outstanding defense and the offense is keeping pace.
Tampa Bay's defense is very good, but the offense isn't.
Take Carolina, 24-20
New York Giants (minus 8)
at Cleveland
This was supposed to be Cleveland's year.
Maybe next year.
Take the Giants, 31-17
Jacksonville (plus 31/2 )
at Denver
Denver's throwing the ball better than anyone in the league.
Jacksonville, as we saw last week, has a weak secondary.
Take Denver, 31-27
Baltimore (plus 41/2 )
at Indianapolis
The Ravens run the ball as well as anyone in the league and fullback LeRon McClain is actually bigger than both of Indianapolis' defensive tackles.
Take Baltimore, 20-17
Dallas (minus 5)
at Arizona
Shootout alert. Arizona has been scoring points in bunches at home.
Dallas' defense isn't all it was cracked up to be, but the offense is outstanding.
Take Arizona to cover in a 38-35 loss
Philadelphia (minus 41/2 )
at San Francisco
The Eagles can't afford to fall to 2-4 in the NFC East.
San Francisco has allowed a league-worst 20 sacks and the Eagles have 18.
Take Philadelphia, 24-13
Chicago (minus 3)
at Atlanta
If you stop Michael Turner, you stop the Falcons.
The Bears can stop Turner.
Take Chicago, 20-13
Miami (plus 3)
at Houston
The Texans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last week against the Colts.
Miami has played over its head the past couple of weeks.
Take Houston, 27-20
Green Bay (plus 2)
at Seattle
The Seahawks are at home, but their only win this season has come over lowly St. Louis.
And QB Matt Hasselbeck won't play.
Take Green Bay, 31-17
St. Louis (plus 131/2 )
at Washington
The Rams play their first game under interim coach Jim Haslett.
But the talent is still the same.
Take Washington, 35-10
Oakland (plus 71/2 )
at New Orleans
The Raiders don't have the passing game to keep up with New Orleans.
The Saints figure to be angry after blowing the Monday night game.
Take New Orleans, 27-13
Cincinnati (plus 6)
at New York Jets
The Bengals have been competitive the past few weeks, just missing out on their first victory.
Carson Palmer, however, won't play this week.
Take the Jets, 31-10
Detroit (plus 131/2 )
at Minnesota
The Lions are just a mess.
They can't stop anyone and can't score, a lethal combination.
Take Minnesota, 37-17 as the pick of the week
Last week: 9-3-2, won pick of the week
Overall: 41-29-3, 4-1 in pick of the week
F. Dale Lolley can be reached at dlolley@observer-reporter.com