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All joking aside, Oscar for Ledger may not be in the cards
That, of course, would be an Oscar going to the late Heath Ledger for his critically praised performance as the Joker in "The Dark Knight."
"A posthumous Oscar seems to be already on the cards," Britain's newspaper The Observer stated, while one fan commenting on a friend's entertainment blog breathlessly contended that a Ledger win was "a slam dunk."
The fact that the nominations will be announced on the first anniversary of Ledger's death from a prescription drug overdose also is being viewed by some as a favorable omen.
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No doubt, as things stand right now, Ledger has a decent chance of being nominated, though it's not clear whether it will be as a leading or supporting role. I'd say his chances of being nominated - and winning - will be appreciably better if he's nominated for Best Supporting Actor.
That being said, the Academy's track record when it comes to handing out Oscars to dead actors and actresses augurs against Ledger winning one. If he's a posthumous acting nominee, he'll only be the seventh in the history of the Academy Awards. The previous nominees were Jeanne Eagels for "The Letter" in 1929; James Dean for "East of Eden" in 1955; James Dean, again, for "Giant" in 1956; Spencer Tracy for "Guess Who's Coming to Dinner" in 1967; Ralph Richardson for "Greystoke: The Legend of Tarzan, Lord of the Apes" in 1984; and Massimo Troisi for "Il Postino" in 1995. None of them won (it should be noted that Peter Finch was nominated for his performance in "Network" in 1976 while he was still alive, but died of a heart attack in the weeks leading up to the ceremony and subsequently won).
Tom O'Neil, a columnist for The Los Angeles Times told Reuters last week, "These awards are all about hugs and there's something creepy about embracing the dead."
Ledger's boosters also will have to contend with the six-month gap between now and the announcement of the nominations. The hype surrounding "The Dark Knight" and Ledger's performance will cool, and, as we head into the fall, Hollywood will start unleashing its prestige product with an eye on the Oscars and year-end critics lists.
I'd say that Frank Langella, who will be playing Richard Nixon in the adaptation of the Broadway hit "Frost/Nixon" has a good shot at being a nominee, along with his co-star Michael Sheen. The smart money also has Philip Seymour Hoffman grabbing another nomination for his role as a priest in "Doubt," along with co-stars Meryl Streep and Amy Adams. Daniel Craig, the new James Bond, will be starring in the drama "Defiance" and Leonardo DiCaprio will be teaming up with "Titanic" co-star Kate Winslet for "Revolutionary Road," an adaptation of a well-regarded 1960s novel directed by Sam Mendes ("American Beauty").
Ledger might win an Oscar, but he'll have some competition, that's for sure.
Also, it's good to keep in mind other recent Oscar slam-dunks that didn't quite make it into the basket. Back in 1996, Lauren Bacall was considered a sure-thing to win the supporting actress trophy for "The Mirror Has Two Faces," but, lo and behold, actual Academy voters went in another direction and gave it to Juliette Binoche for "The English Patient" instead.
Just two years ago, "Brokeback Mountain" was thought to have an iron-clad lock on Best Picture, but even Jack Nicholson looked surprised on Oscar night when he announced the winner - "Crash."
And who starred in "Brokeback Mountain"? Heath Ledger.
