RSS | 
Twitter
| 
Be a fan!
Enjoy the '2nd half'
Sure, there's off-season football, basketball and hockey news, and for a certain segment of fans, the FIFA Women's World Cup semifinals is today. But if you're looking to sit down and watch one of the so-called major American sports, you'd better have something saved on the DVR.
Technically, we're a little past the midway point of baseball season, but the all-star break makes for a convenient frame of reference as columnists and commentators address the second half.
Around here, that means Pirates talk, particularly with the team's startling surge of success.
Rate This Story:
1 the lowest - 5 the highest
Current rating:
I've been nothing but critical of the Pirates organization for years, and that changed not a bit prior to this season. So far, I've been dead wrong. It's not the first time.
The big question going into the break: Can the Pirates contend for the National League Central Division title?
My answer, as a 40-year fan and member of the Society for American Baseball Research: probably not.
That's no indictment of the players, management or even the ownership. It's merely an objective prognostication based on precedent and mild statistical analysis.
The Pirates lost 105 games last year. No major-league team since 1890 has gone from a record like that one year to the postseason the next, and back then there were myriad extenuating circumstances involved, not the least of which being that the applicable league went out of business in 1891.
Sure, Pittsburgh could snap that 120-year-old streak. But other factors point to it staying intact.
Baseball always has been a sport for lovers of statistics, but the crunching of numbers has grown exponentially over the past few decades. These days, I have conversations with my son about arcane measures of performance like Wins Above Replacement and Fielding Independent Pitching, stuff that makes the calculation of earned-run average look as simple as 1 plus 1.
To put all of that into layman's terms, the Pirates are playing a bit above their heads, and compared with some of their divisional competitors, the signs point to Pittsburgh falling short by the end of the season.
That might seem like a letdown, but let's say the Pirates finish 82-80. Not only would that represent the team's first winning season since '92, but it also would be a 25-game improvement over '10.
In that context, something like 77-85 would mark a substantial turnaround, with plenty of optimism for '12.
So let's look forward to the "second half" by continuing to have fun with the Buccos, even if they backslide a bit.
And of course, I've been wrong before.
Online editor Harry Funk can be reached at hfunk@observer-reporter.com.
- Keep it civil and stay on topic.
- No profanity, vulgarity, racial slurs or personal attacks.
- Comments that harass others or joke about tragedies will be deleted.
- Keep it brief and turn off all caps.
- No URLs.
