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Get ready for 20-point spreads during second half of season
There have not been this many haves and have-nots in the league since the NFL merged with the AFL in 1970.
Don't think that's the case?
Look at last week's games as a prime example. An NFL record six games were decided by four or more touchdowns, and the only reason it wasn't more was because two of the league's awful teams - Detroit and Tennessee - didn't play.
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It's a record that could be broken again this season as some teams start to pack it in down the stretch.
The biggest difference between the haves and have-nots is quarterback play.
Of the 14 teams that have winning records, only Denver (Kyle Orton) and Houston (Matt Schaub) are starting quarterbacks who weren't either a first-round draft pick or have been to at least one Pro Bowl.
It's making things pretty interesting for those who set the betting lines for NFL games. The largest pointspread for an NFL regular season game - according Robert Walker, the Director of the Race and Sports Book at MGM Mirage in Vegas - was when the Steelers played the expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1976. Pittsburgh was a 24-point favorite and won, 42-0.
You just don't see spreads larger than 20 points very often in the NFL.
But you're going to start seeing them frequently in the second half of this season.
Denver (plus 3 1/2) at Baltimore
Both teams are coming off a bye week and are well-rested.
Baltimore has more to lose and the Broncos aren't good enough to go 7-0.
Take Baltimore, 24-17
Houston (minus 3) at Buffalo
The Bills are sticking with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Yes, that's the same Ryan Fitzpatrick who looked awful for Cincinnati last season.
Take Houston, 27-13
Cleveland (plus 13) at Chicago
The Bears were embarrassed last week in Cincinnati by their former first-round pick Cedric Benson.
But the Browns only have a bunch of former Jets, not Bears.
Take Chicago, 27-10 as the Pick of the Week.
Seattle (plus 9 1/2) at Dallas
Seattle's coming off a bye and Dallas is coming off an impressive win over Atlanta. The Cowboys are better.
Take Dallas, 23-13
St. Louis (plus 4 1/2) at Detroit
It's hard to believe the Lions are actually a favorite over somebody, but that tells you just how bad the Rams have been, particularly on offense.
Take Detroit, 30-17
San Francisco (plus 12) at Indianapolis
A battle of quarterbacks who were No. 1 picks in the draft pits Peyton Manning (1998) vs. Alex Smith (2006).
I'm going with Manning.
Take Indianapolis, 31-13
Miami (plus 3) at N.Y. Jets
The Dolphins ran over the Jets a few weeks ago in the wildcat, as New York looked like it had no clue how to stop it.
But that game was in Miami.
Take Miami to cover in a 24-21 loss
N.Y. Giants (even) at Philadelphia
This is a tough matchup for the Giants, who have lost two in a row. I don't see New York losing three in a row.
Take the Giants, 27-24
Oakland (plus 17) at San Diego
Raiders' defensive lineman Richard Seymour said this week that his team couldn't beat an Oakland high school team. San Diego is better than that.
Take San Diego, 27-10
Jacksonville (plus 3) at Tennessee
If Tennessee loses this one coming off a bye, we'll know the Curse of Cope is real. The Titans haven't won since trampling the Terrible Towel last season.
Take Tennessee, 24-20
Carolina (plus 10) at Arizona
It's hard to believe now, but this was a playoff matchup last year. Arizona's playing at that level again. Carolina is not.
Take Arizona, 34-14
Minnesota (plus 3) at Green Bay
The Brett Favre Bowl, part II.
The Vikings can really create some separation in the division with a win in Green Bay, but I don't see that happening.
Take Green Bay, 31-27
Atlanta (plus 10) at New Orleans
A pivotal game in the NFC South. Atlanta needs a win here to stay within striking distance, but Drew Brees is 5-1 against the Falcons with the Saints.
Take New Orleans, 35-24
Last Week: 8-4-1, correct Pick of the Week.
Overall: 59-41-1, 3-4 in Pick of the Week.
