Mar 16, 2021 4 min read

The state record may be just down the road.

Gasoline prices are continuing to rise across the commonwealth. A gallon of unleaded self-serve averages $3.027 statewide this week, and $3.065 across Western Pennsylvania, according to AAA East Central’s weekly pricing index, which was released Monday.

Those weekly increases – 3.3 cents for the Keystone State and 1.4 cents for this region, 3.3 cents for the Keystone State – are modest compared with what has transpired since 2021 began. Fuel costs have jumped in Western Pennsylvania in 10 of the past 11 weeks, totaling 58.7 cents per gallon. That is nearly a 25% increase from about $2.50 on New Year’s Day – the approximate cost a year ago as well.

If this ascent continues, Pennsylvania could conceivably top its highest average – $4.074 – established July 16, 2008.

What is fueling this disconcerting phenomenon for commuters? It is a combination of factors: decreased vehicular usage, especially during the first half of the pandemic, when working at home became a standard; production cuts by domestic oil drillers; soaring crude oil prices, following OPEC’s vote to limit production increases; and weather-related refinery shutdowns.

Add all of that to Pennsylvania’s existing gasoline tax of 58 cents per gallon, second highest among the 50 states.

Jim Garrity, spokesman for Pittsburgh-based AAA East Central, blames the accelerating prices largely on crude oil and refinery issues.

“Crude is 50 to 60 cents of every dollar we spend when pumping gas,” he said in an email. “So when there’s a change of a few dollars, even that can have a big impact. Today, crude is almost $20 more expensive than the beginning of the year, and as it rose, so did gas prices.”

Garrity also pointed out that more than 40% of “refineries are offline in America, partly from the storms in Texas, and partly as refineries go offline for regularly scheduled maintenance.” The horrific winter storm in Texas last month, according to AAA, pushed the national gas average up 40 cents, to $2.86.

And expect prices to rise again, as the Energy Information Administration’s latest reports show a continued decline in gasoline stocks and a large increase in national demand.

So, will Pennsylvania approach or bypass its 13-year-old record?

“Gas prices do not appear likely to go that high,” Garrity said.”But that’s barring any unforeseen circumstances. Also, it remains to be seen what impact the summer driving season and the switch to (the pricier) summer-blend gasoline will have.

“That being said, crude oil prices seem to have stabilized at the moment, which will likely curtail any other major increases at the pump.”

Denton Cinquegrana is certain the record will endure. In fact, he is staking his reputation on it – literally.

“If it’s broken, I’ll be streaking through PNC Park in the middle of a game,” he said,with a laugh. “I don’t think prices will go up to $4. That would be catastrophic for demand.”

Cinquegrana is a chief oil analyst for Oil Price Information Service, a company provides pricing and news information for fuels, natural gas and other products.

He said gasoline demand “is picking up a little” and probably will reach a full recovery.

“The question is, What will a full recovery look like?” he asked, citing an increase in usage of electric vehicles and hybrids. “Comparing it with 2018 and 2019 levels would be a better judge of whether it is a full recovery.”

Cinquegrana wasn’t surprised refineries were knocked out by storms. “The largest refineries are along the Gulf Coast and they’re not equipped for this type of weather. They’re definitely not used to this or prepared for it.”

As for the western half of Pennsylvania . . . AAA monitors weekly prices in 23 cities and towns, and 20 of those locales have posted averages above $3 this week. Clarion ($2.961), New Castle ($2.969) and Sharon ($2.990) are just shy of that level.

Washington’s figure rose 3.4 cents over the week to $3.064, seventh lowest in the region. Gas in the greater Washington area usually is cheaper than most local locales, but its average has jumped 59.7 cents since the beginning of the year.

Uniontown bypassed Washington, moving into sixth as its average remained $3.063.

Mercer and Warren tied for the most expensive price at $3.099.

Even the highest price is still $1 shy of the state’s ignominious high watermark.