Nov 14, 2015 4 min read

Mike Tomlin has never lost to the Cleveland Browns at home.

Think about that. Eight times Cleveland has traveled to Pittsburgh. Eight times it has come away empty.

And in those eight games, the Steelers outscored the Browns by an average score of 25.6 to 12.4.

Of course, all of those games came with Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. He won’t be there today, the first time since 2005 that Roethlisberger will miss a game at home against the Browns.

Charlie Batch got the start that day, leading the Steelers to a 34-21 win in a game in which he completed 13 of 19 passes for just 150 yards before suffering a broken hand in the second quarter while scoring on a 1-yard TD run.

Tommy Maddox relieved him and threw just 7 passes, completing four as the Steelers rushed for 159 yards and three scores, sucking the life out of the Browns.

We could see something similar out of the Landry Jones-led Steelers today, though Pittsburgh would prefer he not break his hand in the process.

Cleveland’s run defense is the worst in the NFL, while the Steelers, despite not having Le’Veon Bell, rank fifth in the league in rushing.

The Browns will almost certainly crowd the line of scrimmage and try to force Jones to beat them. But with Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant on the outside, is that really the way to go?

Oakland attempted to play a lot of single coverage on Brown last week and all he did was catch 17 passes for 284 yards.

But if the Browns don’t bring a safety closer to the line of scrimmage to help out in the run game, DeAngelo Williams will eat them up.

It’s a tough spot.

That’s not to say Cleveland can’t win. If the Steelers have any question about that, head coach Mike Tomlin needs only to throw in some tape of last year’s game in Cleveland, one in which the Browns rolled over Pittsburgh 31-10.

Don’t think anyone involved is forgetting about that one.

But much of the damage in that game came because the Browns ran the ball effectively, gaining 158 yards on the ground to open up its play-action passing game.

Pittsburgh’s run defense is much better this season ranking 12th in the NFL, while Cleveland’s rushing offense ranks 31st.

As long as Jones takes care of the football, the Steelers should win this game and reach their bye week at 6-4.

The Steelers are favored by 5 points and there’s no reason to think they shouldn’t both win and cover that spread.

Take the Steelers, 24-13.

A couple of more wins and the Bengals officially clinch the AFC North.

Take Cincinnati, 34-17

Cowboys have been close in recent weeks. They finally get a W here.

Take Dallas, 24-20

The Cardinals can inch closer to clinching the NFC West with a win in this one. Not so fast.

Take Seattle, 27-23

If this was a Super Bowl, I’d take the Giants against the Patriots. It’s not.

Take New England, 34-23

The Packers have owned the Lions. Nothing changes here.

Take Green Bay, 37-23

Something tells me this spread is too high. Dan Campbell and company cover.

Take Miami to cover in a 27-23 loss

Coming off a pair of emotionally charged games against the Packers and Colts, the Panthers might be in for a letdown.

Take Tennessee to cover in a 24-21 loss

Teddy Bridgewater will play despite suffering a concussion last week. Always go against the concussed QB.

Take Oakland, 31-24

The Chiefs won’t win here, but with Emmanuel Sanders and Peyton Manning both hurting, they’ll keep it close.

Take Kansas City to cover in a 23-20 loss

The Rams at home should win over the Bears, who just played a Monday night game on the road.

Take St. Louis, 24-14

The Saints have covered just twice in their past 10 games as road favorites.

Take Washington, 24-21

Why are the Ravens favored by this much?

Take Jacksonville to cover in a 23-20 loss

Last Week: 5-7 ATS; 6-6 Straight up

Overall: 65-55-4 ATS; 85-39 Straight up

F. Dale Lolley can be reached at dlolley@observer-reporter.com.