Dec 23, 2016 5 min read

The Steelers are a better team than the Baltimore Ravens, at least on paper.

Things haven’t played out that way on the field lately, largely because of injuries in the past few seasons. But it is the case.

Baltimore has won the past four games and six of the past seven.

One of those was a playoff game in January of 2015 in Pittsburgh, when the Steelers lost All-Pro running back Le’Veon Bell six days before the game to an injury. Another was last season in Pittsburgh, when the Steelers started Mike Vick at quarterback in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger and then-placekicker Josh Scobee missed a pair of field goals in the final two minutes and the Ravens won in overtime.

So there have been some extenuating circumstances.

Those do not, however, explain away two losses in Baltimore, one to an injury-ravaged, Ryan Mallett-led team last season and earlier this season when Pittsburgh’s offense struggled to get a first down for three quarters.

In other words, strange things happen to the Steelers when they play the Ravens, particularly in Baltimore. When these two AFC North rivals have met in Pittsburgh, there have been some issues that were a factor in the results.

The last time the Steelers played the Ravens in Pittsburgh with Roethlisberger and Bell healthy, they ran up and down the field so easily on Baltimore’s defense the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission should have considered putting up some toll booths at the goal lines at halftime.

Roethlisberger threw for 340 yards and six TD passes in that game. Bell managed just 10 carries for 20 yards, and had five catches for 36 yards and a touchdown.

Pittsburgh needs to look at the tape of that 43-24 butt-kicking and realize it can’t try to play Sunday’s game as if it will be a 16-13 knock-down, drag-out affair.

If you play things close to the vest because you expect a close game, don’t be surprised when the results are close. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The Ravens, with placekicker Justin Tucker, arguably the best in football at his position, are built to win those kind of games.

The Steelers are missing some offensive weapons. Martavis Bryant is suspended. Markus Wheaton is out for the season. Ladarius Green won’t play because of a concussion.

But the Steelers still need to spread the Ravens out and throw against that defense they way New England did in a win over Baltimore three weeks ago.

Baltimore’s top cornerback, Jimmy Smith, is unlikely to play. On offense, the Ravens aren’t a juggernaut, averaging just under 22 points per game, 19th in the league.

Pittsburgh’s vastly improved defense should get enough stops to allow the Steelers to build a lead if they start fast at home – as they have done. Roethlisberger has 17 TD passes in five home starts. The Ravens’ high-water mark on the road – where they are 2-4 this season – has been 25 points against the Browns. Their other road win this season came against 2-12 Jacksonville.

This is a must-win game for both teams in the division title race. But the Steelers can afford to lose and still get into the playoffs. Baltimore, however, cannot, which should cause the Ravens to play with desperation.

The Steelers want to lock up the division and get over their current Baltimore issues.

Perhaps just as important in a series that has always been close, one team can’t dominate the play. The Steelers, who are 7-2 at Heinz Field when Roethlisberger starts against the Ravens, are due.

The Steelers are 5-point favorites in this game and though many will be scared off by that big number, don’t be.

Take the Steelers to win, 24-17

Two teams headed in opposite directions.

Take Green Bay, 27-16

Especially short week for the Panthers, who played Monday night.

Take Atlanta, 27-22

Too many points for a warm-weather team coming east to play a meaningless game.

Take Cleveland to cover in a 24-20 loss

The Titans are starting to feel some playoff fever. The Jags have played like they’ve been in a haze all season.

Take Tennessee, 24-17

The Saints play everyone tough in New Orleans.

Take New Orleans, 30-24

Denver’s defense can be run on all day. The Broncos’ offense can neither run nor pass.

Take Kansas City, 20-15

Cowboys can clinch the division with a win. Detroit needs it, as well, so take the home team.

Detroit will cover in a 27-20 loss

Buffalo still has an outside shot at the postseason – and saving Rex Ryan’s job.

Take Buffalo, 24-16

Redskins have no room to spare after losing at home Monday night.

Take Washington, 23-13

Bryce Petty vs. Tom Brady. Yeah.

Take New England, 34-13

The undersized Colts defense against Oakland’s offensive line?

Take Oakland, 29-24

Home team should win this one, but the spread might be too high.

Take Arizona to cover in a 24-20 loss

No Burfict or Eifert for the Bengals in this game makes it a tough win, even with Tom Savage at QB for Houston.

Take Houston, 20-17

San Francisco (plus 4)

at Los Angeles

Every time I think I’ve seen the worst game the NFL could possibly offer, another shows up. Ick.

Take Los Angeles, 21-16

Last week: 9-5 ATS; 10-4 Straight up

Overall: 100-100-4 ATS; 122-80-2 Straight up

Dale Lolley can be reached at dlolley@observer-reporter.com.