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Steelers will disrupt Bengals’ home life

4 min read

Since 1980, there have been 35 home underdogs in the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs.

Why is that relevant?

Because this week, all four home teams are underdogs.

Of those 35, 21 won their game outright.

In other words, chances are at least two, and possibly three, of the home underdogs this week will win.

So will the Steelers, who are 3-point favorites to win at Cincinnati tonight, buck the trend or will they become just another road favorite to fall?

Their history in Cincinnati would suggest not. Since Paul Brown Stadium opened in 2000, the Steelers are 14-3 there. The Steelers have won at Paul Brown Stadium so often they might as well stamp red, yellow and blue hypercycloids at midfield, in the end zones and the stadium hallways.

Perhaps Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis put it best when asked about the rivalry, “Isn’t Baltimore their rival? We’re nobody’s rival. We just go out and play.”

Lewis might have been right in previous seasons. With Baltimore’s big step backward this season and Cincinnati’s 16-10 victory in Pittsburgh, the Bengals clearly have the Steelers’ attention.

We saw the fallout of that in the rematch last month at Paul Brown Stadium. The Steelers not only matched Cincinnati’s intensity, they dominated the Bengals, 33-20, in a game that wasn’t that close.

Bengals’ quarterback Andy Dalton was knocked out of that game with a broken thumb that will keep him out of this game. That means second-year A.J. McCarron will get the start for the Bengals.

It’s unlikely McCarron, who has three career starts, will be overwhelmed making his first playoff start. He did, after all, lead Alabama to back-to-back NCAA championships.

At the end of the day, his lack of NFL experience will cost the Bengals. McCarron will be attempting to become the first quarterback with fewer than four career starts to win a playoff game since Gifford Nielsen led the Houston Oilers past San Diego, 17-14, and into the AFC Championship against Pittsburgh in 1979.

That matters in this case because unless Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger turns the ball over more than McCarron, Pittsburgh should win. The Steelers are 10-2 when they force at least one turnover. They’re 0-4 when they fail to get a takeaway.

McCarron hasn’t thrown an interception in his three starts, but he did have a key fumble in a loss at Denver. But the Bengals haven’t exactly helped him. The Bengals have scored 24, 17 and 24 points in the past three games, with McCarron attempting 83 passes and Cincinnati running the ball 96 times. The Steelers would welcome a more run-heavy attack by the Bengals today.

Pittsburgh is allowing 3.8 yards per carry, a more than respectable number. We all know how the pass defense performed.

If the Bengals continue to play it safe with McCarron, they’ll lose. They also can’t get into a shootout with the Steelers for fear McCarron will throw interceptions.

Cincinnati’s defense did do a good job against Pittsburgh’s passing game, taking away the deep passes. It worked in the first meeting because Roethlisberger kept trying to force the ball downfield. In the second meeting, however, he took what Cincinnati gave him and completed 30 of 39 passes 282 yards.

Part of the reason that strategy worked is the Steelers had a solid run game. That will be tough to generate today with DeAngelo Williams unlikely to play because of a sprained foot.

Take Pittsburgh, 26-20

The Chiefs have won 10 games in a row, starting with a 23-13 win over the Landry Jones-led Steelers. The only win over a team with a winning record – other than the Roethlisberger-less Steelers – was in Peyton Manning’s last start for the Broncos. Manning threw four interceptions before being pulled. This is a rematch of a 27-20 victory by Kansas City in Houston.

Take Houston, 20-17

These teams met in Minnesota Dec. 6 with the Seahawks trouncing the Vikings, 38-7. This won’t be that lopsided, but the Seahawks are playing well. Weather could be an issue as temperatures are expected to be below freezing. Another road team wins.

Take Seattle, 30-13

The Packers started 6-0 and have gone 4-6 since, with one of the wins coming on a Hail Mary pass against Detroit. Washington went 6-2 at home and won its final four games to win the NFC East, beating Chicago, Buffalo, Philadelphia and Dallas. That’s not exactly murderer’s row, but the Packers are stumbling.

Take Washington, 27-23

Last week: 5-11 ATS; 7-9 Straight up

Overall: 122-111-5 ATS; 150-88 Straight up

F. Dale Lolley can be reached at dlolley@observer-reporter.com.

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