Mar 25, 2016 4 min read

It will be easy to distinguish who the baseball prognosticators are this season at PNC Park.

They will be wearing the orange life jackets.

After a 98-win season that produced a second-place finish in the National League Central Division, the Pirates have fallen out of favor with pundits.

Many of them are jumping ship.

And all because the Pirates lost a one-dimensional hitter in Pedro Alvarez, who struck out 131 times last season, and a limited-range second baseman in Neil Walker, who was a fan favorite because of his Pittsburgh roots.

The Pirates so wanted to rid themselves of Alvarez that they didn’t offer arbitration, instead simply releasing the under-performing infielder. Alvarez hit some majestic home runs but he didn’t produce many runs – just 401 in 2,500 at-bats. Alvarez was named the worst defensive third baseman by The Sporting News in 2014 and the worst defensive first baseman by Fangraphs last season.

The Pirates didn’t make a major splash in free agency, but they never do. Instead, they made some strategic pickups – David Freese at third base was one of them – and used a position of depth – second base, where Walker, Josh Harrison and Jung Ho Kang can play – to add Jonathan Niese to a pitching staff that lost A.J. Burnett to retirement and J.A. Happ to free agency. The trade for Niese cost Walker, but the $10.55 million deal the Mets signed him to was way too pricey for the Pirates.

The Pirates spent approximately $9 million in free agency to land Freese, reliever Neftali Feliz and starting pitcher Juan Nicasio, who worked out of the Dodgers bullpen last season. They also signed 38-year-old starter Ryan Vogelsong, who appears to be this year’s reclamation project; and John Jaso, who will share first base duties with Michael Morse.

All these moves are important only if the core of the Pirates – outfielders Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco – continue to improve. It’s one of the best outfields in baseball but the potential is there for it to be even better.

The pitching staff appears solid with Gerrit Cole the ace, Francisco Liriano the strong No. 2 and Niese the No. 3. Niese will be the key. A strong season by him could be the deciding factor in the pennant race.

There is depth here, with Jeff Locke back and fighting Nicasio for the No. 5 spot and minor leaguers Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow ready for a mid-summer call-up.

The Chicago Cubs spent about $290 million – or about three times more than the Pirates’ $93 million team salary – to bring in outfielders Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward, and pitcher John Lackey. Must be nice to have that type of cash lying around.

Spending doesn’t always translate into playoff berths. Just ask the Los Angeles Angels.

The St. Louis Cardinals were relatively quiet in the market, spending $25 million for a group of players that included starting pitcher Mike Leake. The Cardinals are counting on Adam Wainright fully recovering from an Achilles tendon injury that limited him to just seven games and a number of promising minor leaguers ready to step into the lineup.

The Cubs have a powerful lineup and have all the pieces to overtake the Cardinals.

The Pirates should win 90-92 games and again make the one-game wildcard playoff game. To do so, all the oars on the Pirates ship have to row in unison, and major injuries must bypass the Pirates again. If that happens, then they can slip past the naysayers bobbing in the water.

Assistant sports editor Joe Tuscano can be reached at jtuscano@observer-reporter.com.