Feb 1, 2023 3 min read

Welcome to February! Have you broken your New Year’s resolutions yet? Have you even taken down your Christmas lights?

January came and went in the blink of an eye, and I’m wondering if that’s because we’ve had such mild weather. Here’s a climate update: As I’m writing this (on Monday), this January ranks as the warmest in Pittsburgh since 2006 and could rank in the top 20 warmest on record. The average temperature throughout this month has been 37.3 degrees. Based on climate records, that’s 8.5 degrees above normal.

Now, let’s talk about snow. So far this season, Pittsburgh has recorded 12.7 inches of snow (measured at the National Weather Service Pittsburgh office in Moon Township). We haven’t gotten that much in most of Washington County, though official records are kept in Pittsburgh. For the Pittsburgh number, that’s the slowest start in four years and 10.2 inches below normal. It’s not unusual to have a slow snow start in winter, and seven of the past 10 years have gotten off to slow snow starts with totals by the end of January hovering below 20 inches. Contrast that to 2014 when Pittsburgh piled up 42 inches of snow by the end of January! So far, this is the 41st slowest snowfall on record for Pittsburgh through the end of January.

With the calendar flipping to February, it’s time for my furry friend, Punxsutawney Phil, to take the spotlight. The NWS Climate Prediction Center outlook for February shows a 40% chance of above normal temperatures for the entire month in our region along with a 40% chance of above normal precipitation. That 40% is interesting because guess whose forecast has been correct 40% of the time over the past 10 years? Yep. Our buddy from Punxsutawney!

Since 1887, Phil did not see his shadow and predicted early spring only 20 times. He has seen his shadow and predicted six more weeks of winter 105 times. In the last decade, Phil was correct 40% of the time but only nailed it once in the past five years. Last year, Phil saw his shadow. February temperatures were slightly below average while March was above normal, so he technically got it wrong. In 2020, Phil did not see his shadow, both February and March were above normal, and he got it right. What will his prognosticating skills tell us tomorrow?

In the short term, temperatures will take a dive the next few days, which will remind us that it is indeed still winter. Watching the shenanigans on Gobbler’s Knob always makes me smile, so regardless of whether Phil predicts early spring or six more weeks of winter, my heart will be warmed, and I will be smiling on Groundhog Day while skiing on what little snow we’ve received and that the ski resorts have made.

Kristin Emery can be reached at kristinemery1@yahoo.com.