Jul 5, 2024 4 min read

The win total for the Steelers in Las Vegas sportsbooks remains at 7.5, even though the juice on that heavily leans toward the under, as most bettors seem to realize that coach Mike Tomlin’s teams always finish at .500 or better.

The Steelers have a new offensive coordinator in Arthur Smith, who has been highly successful in creating units that utilize play-action passing and running the ball effectively.

They have two new quarterbacks in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields who, on their worst days, should be able to produce more than the 13 touchdown passes the Steelers quarterbacks threw in 2023.

They have a revamped offense line that includes another first-round offensive tackle in Troy Fautanu and second-round center Zach Frazier, both considered among the cream of the crop in this year’s draft.

And they have a defense that now includes 2023 All-Pro linebacker Patrick Queen, along with veteran safety DeShon Elliott, who will allow free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to play more centerfield than he did in 2023, giving him a chance to make more plays.

Realistically, the only place the Steelers look worse than they did a year ago at this time is at wide receiver, but it also should be remembered that a year ago at this time, George Pickens had yet to post a 1,000-yard season. Now he has.

And yet, those who set the line on such things believe that a 10-win team will suddenly backslide to 7 or fewer wins?

Certainly the schedule looks difficult.

But remember that the Steelers went 5-1 in AFC North games last season. And they’ve been good within the division for quite some time. Witness their seven wins in their past eight games against the Ravens as evidence.

In addition to the more difficult schedule, critics say the Steelers were 9-2 in one-score games – decided by eight points or fewer – in 2023. Surely that will return to the mean in 2024, they argue.

For many teams that would be true. But realize that in his career, Tomlin is 98-61-2 in one-score games, a .615 winning percentage that is tied with Tony Dungy for the best in the NFL in such games since the 1970 merger.

Since 2007, no coach has won more one-score games than Tomlin, and it’s not particularly close. Andy Reid is second with 78, while John Harbaugh is third with 71.

But Reid, for example, is 78-67-1 in one-score games, a winning percentage of .538. That’s still good, but pales in comparison to what Tomlin has done.

Betting against this team to go under 7.5 wins seems a foolish task, even with a difficult schedule. The Steelers have had some of the toughest schedules in the league in recent years and have still found ways to win games.

Don’t bet against them doing so again in 2024.

• The Steelers’ defensive depth could be bolstered even further if linebacker Cole Holcomb gets approval from doctors to take part in training camp.

When asked at the end of minicamp if any players would be limited to start camp later this month, Tomlin said no.

That seemed odd until general manager Omar Khan conducted an interview on 93.7 The Fan and said Holcomb had a checkup with doctors to get cleared sometime this month.

Getting Holcomb back could give the Steelers an embarrassment of riches at inside linebacker – if he’s what he was before suffering a severely broken leg last season.

• Heck, even the Steelers’ punting situation is better than it was a year ago.

New punter Cameron Johnston has never averaged less than 47.4 yards per kick, even when he was handling the punting duties in Philadelphia.

Former punter Pressley Harvin’s best season was an average of 44.5 yards. Last season, he was at 43.8.

• Does all of this mean the Steelers couldn’t stumble in 2024? Certainly not.

But they look like a better team across the board than the one that took the field in the playoffs in Buffalo last season. Expecting them to take a big step backward seems folly.

Outside an injury to Pickens, whom they need to keep on the field if Khan cannot work a deal for a more experienced complementary receiver, there does not appear to be a player lost to injury that would doom this team.

And yes, that includes T.J. Watt. Alex Highsmith has emerged as a star player, while second-year linebacker Nick Herbig could give the Steelers enough to help offset the loss of Watt – at least on a short-term basis.

Dale Lolley hosts The Drive on Steelers Nation Radio and writes a Sunday column for the Observer-Reporter.