Shopping season, like everything else, is different in 2020
Karen Mansfield/Observer-Reporter
Black Friday 2019, shoppers wait outside the Coach store in 2019 at Tanger Outlets for their turn to enter the store.
Karen Mansfield/Observer-Reporter
Black Friday shoppers in search of bargains are pictured in 2019 at Tanger Outlets.
Observer-Reporter
Civil Knox, general manager and marketing director at Washington Crown Center, said tenants at the mall are hiring but lack applicants.
Courtesy of Sarah Dudik/Washington & Jefferson College
Rob Dunn, associate professor of economics at Washington & Jefferson College, speaks at a 2018 cracker plant symposium.
Holiday shopping has changed dramatically this year, and the reasons are as plain as the mask on your face.
The coronavirus pandemic has had a profound effect on consumers in this, the season to be buying. It has cost people jobs, cut their disposable income, kept them home more often, and rearranged their retail strategies. Not to mention their budgets.
COVID-19 has altered social plans as well. Fewer extended families will observe their annual tradition of trolling mall after mall this Black Friday.
E-commerce continues to be a formidable force, ascending even more this year. And it is accompanied by various big-box chains offering the option of purchasing online and picking up at a local store – curbside or inside. Some of those shoppers won’t fend off the desire to walk in and buy more.
“You have to wonder about impulse purchases,” said Rob Dunn, an associate professor of economics at Washington & Jefferson College. “A store is focused on getting you caught up in making holiday purchases.”
Yet, like COVID-19, there is great uncertainty swirling around retailers, who most years eagerly anticipate the volume of fourth-quarter sales. While some consumers will have less money to spend, others who have been working at home and decided to forgo that beach vacation this summer may have more cash on hand.
“It’s hard to figure,” Dunn said. “The consensus is that retail sales will be up 1 to 1.5%, so there is potential for an upside surprise. But people who have lost jobs and their unemployment benefits have run out are in a tough situation. There is more uncertainty than other years.”
Dorene Ciletti, an associate professor at Point Park University and director of the school’s marketing and sales program, agreed that sales may bump up modestly. “Many analysts are projecting flat holiday sales or a slight increase up to about 2%,” she said.
Ciletti noted that online buying has continued to ramp up. Forbes.com reported in early August that, as of April 21, e-commerce orders had grown 129% year over year in the United States and Canada. Six weeks before Christmas, that percentage may have since risen.
E-commerce is an option that allows consumers to shop anytime while avoiding possible crowding in stores. Some shoppers have already begun their holiday buying via that platform.
“Retailers have added free delivery, curbside pickup, and buying online and picking up at the store,” Ciletti said. “And those options aren’t going to be going away (after the pandemic).”
The large quantity of online buying, however, may create delivery issues – especially delays for large-volume carriers such as Amazon, FedEx and UPS.
“If I were a delivery person, I’d find it intimidating because of the long, long working hours,” Dunn said. “Online consumers have an expectation of getting their items quickly, even during a pandemic.”
“Delays have not been significant more recently,” Ciletti said, “but shipping issues, in part, are what propelled holiday shopping to start earlier. Shipping delays are a concern. So is stock.”
Civil Knox is general manager at Washington Crown Center, not Nostradamus. She cannot reliably predict what will transpire, retail-wise, at her North Franklin Township mall. Yet she is cautiously optimistic.
“Foot traffic has been down. We’ve seen better,” she said. “But we’re hanging in there, anticipating more traffic for the holidays, keeping our hopes alive.”
She is hoping the mall’s Washington County Arts & Crafts Holiday Marketplace, scheduled for Nov. 27 to 29, proves to be the impetus for holiday cheer.
The pandemic may affect what people are purchasing, too. Home is where the heart – and workplace – are for many remote employees these days, who are spending more hours there. So they may want to invest in gifts to be used in their abode.
“People may want to invest in home furnishings or decor, on workout equipment or streaming services,” Ciletti said.
One gift Americans would relish receiving, but probably won’t get by year’s end, is money from a second stimulus package. Members of Congress have been negotiating a package for months, but to no avail thus far.
Dunn said that outlay would have stimulated fourth-quarter retail, even if consumer’s checks weren’t due until January. “People would feel they have money to spend for the holidays, then have this money coming in soon afterward.”
But regardless of how that transpires, the holiday shopping season has been, and will continue to be, stimulating.