What will and should win at the 87th Academy Awards
Ellar Coltrane, at age 6, is shown in a scene from “Boyhood.”
Michael Keaton portrays Riggan in a scene from “Birdman.”
Will Win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s “Birdman” comes home to roost despite the landmark accomplishment of “Boyhood.” As a celebration of showbiz, it’s the “Shakespeare in Love” of its time.
Should Win: “Boyhood” marries film and time in a uniquely powerful way, but it’s also worth making a case for Wes Anderson’s “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” the most relentlessly fun and inventive film of the year.
Should Have Been a Contender: “Interstellar.” Christopher Nolan’s epic is unloved, but it’s a glorious sci-fi soup that would have added some big-budget dazzle to the Oscars. I mean, it’s got a fourth dimension.
Will Win: In one of the most hotly contested categories of the entire race, it wouldn’t be surprising if the academy went with the comparatively elder statesmen Michael Keaton for the comeback performance of a lifetime. Redmayne will get another shot.
Should Win: Keaton. We shouldn’t really care about the artistic endeavors of a past his prime megalomaniac, but Keaton was able to make Riggan Thomson at turns sympathetic, wholly unlikable and desperately sad.
Should Have Been a Contender: There are so many great performances that would have warranted a nomination here, including David Oyelowo for his powerful and studied take on Martin Luther King, Jr in “Selma” and Oscar Isaac’s determined entrepreneur in “A Most Violent Year.”
Will Win: Julianne Moore, “Still Alice.” A great actress overdue for an Oscar, although the film is … forgettable.
Should Win: Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night.” The French actress deserved nods for both this unadorned performance and for the unfairly overlooked “The Immigrant.”
Should Have Been a Contender: Tilda Swinton, “Only Lovers Left Alive.” In Jim Jarmusch’s bitingly funny vampire tale, she’s captivating just walking down a Tangier street. One of cinema’s most exotic creatures.
Will Win: J.K. Simmons’ maniacal jazz instructor in “Whiplash” has been the top choice since the film premiered at Sundance over a year ago.
Should Win: Simmons, and it’ll be extremely disappointing if he doesn’t lose it at the Oscar orchestra when they try to play him off.
Should Have Been a Contender: Tony Revolori was barely even in the conversation for his magnetic, loyal lobby boy Zero in “The Grand Budapest Hotel.”
Will Win: Patricia Arquette is a lock for “Boyhood.”
Should Win: Arquette. The best, most tender scene in “Boyhood” is when Arquette’s character, having raised her kids and watched their “series of milestones” unfold wonders what’s next for her. “I just thought there would be more,” she laments. It’s an unforgettable moment.
Should Have Been a Contender: Every year, countless performances from foreign films go unrewarded, but it feels like a genuine mistake that Agata Kulesza from the Polish film “Ida” didn’t win a nomination. As the bitter, hard-drinking judge Wanda, heavy with Polish history, she’s about as good as it gets.
Will Win: The formal ambitions that probably won’t be enough to secure a best picture win for “Birdman” will likely be acknowledged with a best director win for Alejandro González Iñárritu.
Should Win: The scrappy one-week-a-year shooting schedule and lack of a fully realized script might make Richard Linklater easier to overlook in this category, but that would be mistake.
Should Have Been a Contender: “Inherent Vice” is another one of those movies that is ahead of its time. Paul Thomas Anderson continues to reinvent himself with every picture.
Will Win: With two co-written screenplay nominations to his name, the Academy has already flirted with Wes Anderson’s idiosyncratic dialogue and storytelling, and it looks like they’ll finally embrace it with a statue for the mainstream hit “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” which Anderson co-wrote with Hugo Guinness.
Should Win: Anderson is expert at juxtaposing whimsy with the extremely dark and cynical and the “The Grand Budapest Hotel” is exemplary of his (and Guinness’s) unique talent for creating compelling yet unconventional stories.
Should Have Been a Contender: J.C. Chandor’s elegant and controlled “A Most Violent Year” came and went without much fanfare, but this forgotten gem explores characters, motivations and moral ambiguities with a first-rate story.
Will Win: Damien Chazelle’s “Whiplash” (only “adapted” because he first made a “Whiplash” short) is taught and full of something great scripts have: snappy, quotable lines. It should be to the academy’s tempo.
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson (“Inherent Vice”) deserves a medal just for trying to adapt Thomas Pynchon and not losing his mind in the process.
Should Have Been a Contender: How did Gillian Flynn’s screenplay for “Gone Girl” not make it in here? A worldwide bestseller is turned into deliciously pulpy suburban noir.