Oct 17, 2014 4 min read

Pennsylvania’s political candidates paid $37.8 million on advertising campaigns, more than any other state. But analysts said Gov. Tom Corbett’s strategy is not working for him in the race against Democrat Tom Wolf, at least not with Democrats.

University of Pittsburgh political communications professor Jerry Shuster said Corbett’s campaign was based on attacking his opponent and “underplaying the ability of Tom Wolf to be a legitimate and strong opponent.”

“I think they were surprised by Tom Wolf’s ability to come to the forefront and stay there,” he said. “I think, from the beginning, it demonstrated a kind of weakness.”

He said Corbett does not present a charismatic image, which can dissuade voters. He added he does not maintain eye contact in public addresses, and while his friends describe him as “witty and charming,” he does not present that side publicly.

“He just doesn’t have that smooth touch,” he said.

Shuster said while the Corbett campaign accuses Wolf of making promises that would require a tax increase, Wolf’s lack of specificity about how to fund his goals works in his favor

“It’s a good strategy,” he said. “Don’t be specific now. Otherwise, you’ll get criticized later when you don’t achieve the goals you want to achieve.”

He said the Wolf campaign is using unfulfilled objectives to criticize Corbett.

Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin & Marshall College Keystone poll, said the threat of tax increases is drawing more Republican voters to Corbett.

“There isn’t any doubt that the election is tightening,” he said. “He’s winning Republicans back.”

But the same cannot be said for Democratic voters. Madonna said polls in June showed Corbett falling 20 to 22 percentage points below Wolf, and 17 to 18 percentage points Sept. 24, the date the last poll was released.

He said he thinks Corbett’s campaign has become more focused, and he has done a better job of articulating himself, his goals and achievements.

“Be that as it may, he’s still got a tough road to hoe ahead of him,” he said. “The election is two weeks from Tuesday, and he’s still down by double digits any way you calculate it.”

Washington & Jefferson policital science chairman Dr. Joseph DiSarro said incumbents are hard to beat, and the governor’s race may tighten. That race could determine the results of local contests, he said.

But DiSarro said one thing he and Madonna agree on is that voter turnout is expected to be very low. He said this makes results unpredictable, but also gives incumbents more of an edge.

Washington and Greene counties are becoming more conservative, which he said makes this race interesting and more competitive.

“I would have thought that the incumbents would just be able to walk through the election,” he said. “There’s a rule in poltics: Expect the unexpected, and you might survive.”

DiSarro said there are many important issues in this election, including education, pension reform and severance taxes.

“We can only hope that people get out to vote and take their responsibility as a citizen seriously,” he said.