Experts: U.S. power grid under pressure
The U.S. power grid is vast, and despite its advanced age, still reliable in serving the ever-growing needs of consumers and industry.
But changes in demand and policies aimed at bringing more renewable forms of energy to the mix will challenge a system designed in the 19th century with few changes in technology along the way.
That was the message Thursday from two of the country’s experts in power generation and the increasing use of renewables, particularly solar energy.
Dr. Gregory Reed, director of the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Energy, and Dr. John Swanson, retired founder of engineering simulation software company Ansys Inc., who is building a “net zero” community in Florida, were the featured speakers of “Today’s Grid: A System Under Pressure.”
The 90-minute presentation, attended by about 60 people in W&J’s Burnett Center, was the opening program for the 2015-16 Energy Lecture Series presented by Washington & Jefferson College’s Center for Energy Policy and Management, which is dedicating this year’s series to the power grid.
“A lot of changes are coming that the grid – as it is now – is not going to be able to handle,” said Reed, who worked as an electrical engineer at Consolidated Edison and Mitsubishi Electric Corp., and now teaches at Pitt.
Reed described a North American grid system designed in the nineteenth century by Thomas Edison, George Westinghouse and Nikola Tesla, then continuously built out from the 1930s to the 1970s, that then was underdeveloped for 25 years following the 1970s oil embargo.
The grid continues to provide reliable power across the continent, but is a patchwork system created over a number of decades.
Much of the equipment used to operate the grid is between 50 and 70 years old, with Reed noting that if Westinghouse or Tesla were to come back today, they would see a system very much like the one they created.
The fractured nature of the power grid spells trouble for changes already starting to occur in the nation’s energy supply chain, he added, noting the recent efforts by policymakers to add more renewable forms of energy to supply power.
Reed showed a map of the U.S., showing the greatest concentrations of power supply to the population centers of the Northeast, upper Midwest, Southeast and West Coast. He noted little or no infrastructure exits in the Great Plains region, which is also seen a potentially large generator of wind power that would have little or no access to the grid without extensive additions of power lines.
“There’s a mismatch between future energy supply and demand,” he said, noting that today’s network still functions as a one-way, alternating power system that makes power from fossil fuel in large, central generating stations that distribute it first through 400,000 miles of high voltage lines and 16,000 substations to another 5 million miles of lower wattage lines and 60,000 smaller subtations to end-users that include residential, commercial and industrial customers.
With the addition of solar and wind power and the EPA’s Clean Power Plan that calls for the country to cut power plant emissions 32 percent by 2030, as well as the advent of micro-grid systems popping up that can return surplus generated power to the grid, massive changes will be required.
When asked what it would take to upgrade to a system that could reliably handle the new power sources and keep up with a continuously growing demand, Reed estimated it could take up to $1 trillion and “a decade or more” of work.
While there is direct current technology available and the modernization would create thousands of jobs, Reed said he does not believe there will be the political will to authorize such a transformation.
The second half of Thursday’s presentation came from Swanson, a major donor to Pitt and W&J including the college’s Swanson Science Center. Despite his many philanthropic projects, Swanson’s real passion since his retirement has been solar energy. A Florida resident, he is building Green Key Village, in Lady Lake, Fla., a 3-year-old, 142-unit community of net-zero homes that generate energy on-site from rooftop solar-electric panels, with the goal of generating as much energy as each family uses annually.
Swanson, who acknowledged that the construction of net-zero homes can mean an additional $20,000 to $30,000 in upfront costs, also provided information that shows that the kilowatt cost for solar generation has fallen from $70 in 1977 to 72 cents per watt now. While a 30 percent federal subsidy for solar installation is scheduled to expire in 2016, Swanson is undaunted about its potential.
“Solar is on a roll and it’s not going to stop if subsidies go away,” he said.
Swanson also showed scenarios in which he could incorporate the use of small windmills and electric cars to further achieve a net-zero community.
Both Reed and Swanson agreed that the game-changer for solar will come when a commercially viable, affordable storage battery becomes available, enabling 24-hour use.
“Batteries are going to change everything from a time-shifting standpoint,” Swanson said.