Forecast: Hotter Pennsylvania
California University of Pennsylvania’s Dr. Chad Kauffman said the region which includes Southwestern Pennsylvania is experiencing the greatest increase in heavy precipitation of all U.S. regions.
Dr. Chad Kauffman teaches a climate change class at California University of Pennsylvania.
Maybe Pennsylvania’s state song should be “Heat Wave.” Or “Singing in the Rain.”
According to a Penn State University report released last month on the impact of climate change, residents of the Keystone State will be battling dangerously high summer temperatures, more severe storms, an increased threat of some diseases carried by insects and drastic changes to agriculture and water quality.
The 2015 Climate Impacts Assessment projects that by 2015, Pennsylvania will be 5.4 degrees warmer than it was in 2000.
The report found Pennsylvania warmed by nearly 2 degrees in the past 110 years, and the warming will only accelerate.
By 2050, Philadelphia’s climate will be similar to current-day Richmond, and Pittsburgh will be more like current-day Washington, D.C.
The report was authored Dr. James Shortle and his colleagues at Penn State University.
“The scientific data is clear: climate change is happening, and there will be impacts to Pennsylvania,” said Shortle. “The effects of climate change will be felt across all parts of Pennsylvania – agriculture, human health, water quality, energy, even outdoor recreation will be affected.”
Some concerns raised in the study are:
• Climate change could worsen air quality, increase pollen concentration, cause longer allergy seasons and aggravate asthma.
• Insect-borne diseases like West Nile virus and Lyme disease could increase due to more favorable conditions for mosquitoes and deer ticks.
• Increased precipitation in many parts of the state could lead to higher flood risks and threaten safe drinking water supplies.
• Warmer temperatures will bring more favorable conditions for agricultural pests like weeds and insects.
• Severe storms, strengthened by warmer temperatures, could affect electric service and electricity infrastructure.
• Less snow could be produced, with the result that ski resorts “are not expected to remain economically viable past mid-century.”
• Pennsylvania farmers should prepare for drastic changes to agriculture, both good and bad.
Longer growing seasons and more tolerable temperatures could mean new crops could grow in the state.
But milk production and birthing rates in dairy cows could decrease as a result of heat stress, which will take a toll on dairy farmers.
“We have our own unique challenges here in Southwestern Pennsylvania,” said Dr. Chad Kauffman, who teaches climate change courses at California University of Pennsylvania and coordinated a climate change seminar at the university in the spring. “Notably, the National Climate Assessment notes the Northeast region, a high-density urban corridor that we live in – which stretches from Washington, D.C., to Boston – has the greatest increase in heavy precipitation of all regions in the United States, a 71 percent increase in recent decades. That raises all kinds of issues from stormwater management and flooding to infrastructure and even traffic accidents. It affects us, and it affects wildlife.”
Specifically, municipalities throughout the region are beginning to address stormwater issues that have resulted from increased intensity of storms.
Among them is Peters Township.
“It’s an area we’ve been sensitive to because there seem to be more intense storms more often. It seems the frequency of heavier storms has increased over the years and we’ve created special storm sewer projects to deal with areas that are chronic flooding areas, and do preventive measures for flooding,” said Peters Township business manager Michael Silvestri, noting the township purchased a street sweeper with a vacuum to sweep catch basins that get plugged with leaves and other debris.
Dr. Carol Bocetti, an endangered species biologist and leader of the recovery team for the endangered Kirtland’s warbler, is a professor at California University of Pennsylvania, said residents don’t have to look far to see the ecological impact of climate change.
The increase in CO2 levels has made poison ivy more potent; the woolly adelgid, which originated in southern Virginia, has invaded Pennsylvania and decimated the state tree, the hemlock; brook trout, which need clean, very cold water, have been eliminated from about one-third of the watersheds they lived in.
“But the major wildlife impact that jumps to my mind is – I just heard the statistic last week – that one of the documented changes in songbirds is a range shift in the breeding ground 150 miles to the north that is very likely climate driven.”
Luke DeGroote, an avian ecologist and bird banding program coordinator at Carnegie Museum of Natural History’s Powdermill Avian Research Center in Pittsburgh, led bird banding efforts that led to the discovery.
“This report shows that climate change is reality and it will get worse, and it will affect key sectors of the economy, our health, and our quality of life,” said Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Secretary John Quigley. “We must respond to this challenge, and do so in a way that strengthens Pennsylvania’s economy and improves the environment we live in.”
Bocetti said she encourages her students to remain positive, despite the toll climate change is taking.
“I have to remind my students, because it sounds so gloom and doom, that the earth is resilient and humans aren’t completely stupid, and that I think international climate change negotiations are about to bear fruit,” said Bocelli. “I’m confident that we’re starting to see enough evidence that (climate change) is undeniable. A lot of the naysayers who are absolutely consciously peddling doubt will end up like those in the tobacco industry, which got to the point where the evidence was overwhelming and they could no longer deny the dangers of tobacco. I’m hopeful.”
The DEP will collect public comments on the climate change report for 60 days, through Nov. 4, DEP spokesman Neil Shader said.
All submissions must include the commenter’s name and address. Commenters are encouraged to use the department’s online eComment tool at www.ahs.dep.pa.gov/ eComment. Written comments should be submitted to Department of Environmental Protection, Policy Office, Rachel Carson State Office Building, P.O. Box 2063, Harrisburg, PA 17105-2063, or by email to ecomment@pa.gov.
The full climate report is available online at: http:// www.elibrary.dep.state.pa.us/dsweb/Get/Document-108310/2700-BK-DEP4494.pdf.