Nov 23, 2017 8 min read

The pause at Tanger Outlets Wednesday morning was a welcome break for Jenny Schaafsma and Henry Meloche of Morgantown, W.Va., during their nine-hour trip home to visit family in Grand Rapids, Mich.

The couple was doing some holiday shopping at the South Strabane Township retail venue in advance of the Thanksgiving weekend, which they planned to spend with family.

“We have no intention of shopping on Black Friday,” Meloche said, with Schaafsma adding, “We probably do more shopping online.”

The couple’s comments mirror what retail analysts are projecting for the 2017 holiday shopping season, with consumers expected to evenly split their time between stores and online to complete their gift lists.

This year’s projections for holiday sales from a trio of sources show a surprisingly sunny outlook, compared to the past several years, expecting the season to produce higher revenue, but noting the growing gap between bricks-and-mortar and online sales.

The National Retail Federation, which represents the retail industry, said it expects holiday sales in November and December to increase between 3.6 and 4 percent for a total of $678.75 billion to $682 billion, up from $655.8 billion last year. The figure excludes automobiles, gasoline and restaurants.

“Our forecast reflects the very realistic steady momentum of the economy and overall strength of the industry, said NRF President and Chief Executive Officer Matthew Shay when the projection was announced in early October.

NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said all of the fundamentals are aligned for consumers to spend during the holidays. “The combination of job creation, improved wages, tame inflation and an increase in net worth all provide the capacity and the confidence to spend.”

But where they’ll spend is approaching a nearly even split between two choices.

The Amazon factor

A holiday spending forecast by FTI Consulting pegs growth even higher than NRF’s, projecting 4.5 percent, up from its 2016 measurement of 3.3 percent. But FTI was more cautious in its rationale.

“…Whether total holiday sales increase by 3 percent, or 4 percent or 5 percent this season hardly seem consequential in the larger context of the upheaval affecting most store-based retail chains,” FTI wrote, noting that while bricks-and-mortar stores currently account for 85 percent of U.S. retail sales, they have claimed far less than 50 percent of total sales growth since 2016. FTI estimates that total store-based sales growth is at a “negligible” 1 percent to 1.5 percent growth in 2017.

“Approximately 60 percent of total U.S. retail sales growth has accrued to the online channel in the last year,” FTI said, noting that the figure compares to 40 percent of total sales going to the online channel as recently as 2014. About 60 percent of online sales growth since 2015 has been captured by Amazon, it added.

FTI’s view coincides with a survey by Washington, D.C.,-based Consumers’ Research in which 29 percent said they plan to do most or all of their holiday shopping in a store, while an almost equal number (27 percent) said they do most of their shopping online. Another 30 percent said they would do half in a store and half online.

Also leaning more to the ability to shop anywhere anytime were Melinda and Glenn Pope of Queensland, Australia, who also visited Tanger Wednesday looking for a few gifts to take home next week.

“I do most of my shopping online,” Melinda said, adding that the prices they were seeing at the outlet were much lower than in Australia.

Regardless of where shoppers spend, FTI expressed certainty that they will.

“Consumers are decidedly upbeat as we enter the holiday season,” FTI said.

Audrey Guskey, associate professor of marketing at Duquesne University, believes that holiday shopping this season will surpass that of the past several years. She predicted a 5 percent increase for the 2017 season. She said her research is based on the stronger performance of Halloween and back-to-school sales compared to the past several years.

But like the others, Guskey said it remains to be seen how much will be spent in stores versus online, mentioning the massive presence of Amazon.

“It’s almost scary that Amazon is an amazon,” she said, adding that unlike a decade ago, “people aren’t dabbling” when they’re shopping online. And many merchants have learned that they can promote “pre-Black Friday sales” online.

In a survey, the NRF projects that more than 164 million consumers plan to shop over Thanksgiving weekend and Cyber Monday. Of those considering shopping the long holiday weekend, the survey found that 20 percent plan to shop on Thanksgiving Day (32 million) but Black Friday will remain the busiest day with 70 percent planning to shop then (115 million). A substantial 43 percent are expected to shop on Saturday (71 million), with 76 percent saying they will do so specifically to support Small Business Saturday. On Sunday, 21 percent expect to shop (35 million) and 48 percent are expected to shop online on Cyber Monday (78 million).

While many consumers plan to take advantage of deals over Thanksgiving weekend, 31 percent of those surveyed said they will refrain from shopping this weekend. Of those not planning to participate, 52 percent won’t shop because they do not enjoy the experience and 51 percent say they never shop during Thanksgiving weekend.

Local plans

Civil Knox, manager of Washington Crown Center in North Franklin Township, said the mall will be closed on Thanksgiving for the second consecutive year.

“We decided to give everyone the day off to spend with family,” she said, adding that the decision “worked out really well” last year.

All of the mall’s stores will be open from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. Friday, with the mall offering gift wrapping for purchases from 10 a.m. to 10 p.m. Knox said Friday is also the deadline for customers to register for Toys for Tots.

Tanger Outlets will open at 6 p.m. Thanksgiving Day and remain open through 10 p.m. on Black Friday, said Nicole Baculik, manager of the South Strabane shopping complex.

Thinking small

Some merchants are hoping that shoppers will think small, as in supporting small businesses on Saturday.

Sarah Collier, who became Washington’s Main Street Manager this summer, said 20 downtown merchants are participating in Small Business Saturday, which will run from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.

In addition to many downtown bricks-and-mortar stores that are participants, Collier will also introduce a pop-up “makers market” at the Farmers Market Pavilion on South Main Street during the SBS hours. She received commitments from 10 craftspeople for the event “and they’re all from the 15301 zip code” in keeping with the SBS drive for people to shop local for the holidays. The pop-up will also include a gift-wrapping station.

Waynesburg’s business district has throttled back its organized sales during the Thanksgiving week this year. Since 2014, the Waynesburg Merchants Guild coordinated the Cookie Caper event the Saturday before Thanksgiving that brought many stores together for sales, but Lauren Stauffer said they couldn’t get enough participation this year to continue it.

“There just are not enough businesses in town to support that big of an event,” said Stauffer, who serves as the guild treasurer and owns Ruff Creek Crafts & Antiques on High Street.

Some stores might have individual sales for the day. Stauffer is marking her store’s four-year anniversary on Small Business Saturday with cake, prizes and drawings. Meanwhile, Linda Winegar, co-owner of ArtBeat in Waynesburg, said her store will have a special 10 percent off sale.

Business owners in the Waynesburg Merchants Guild are still working to promote each other, Winegar said, and will remain open until 8 p.m. each Wednesday in December.

“We’re hoping to get local people to support local businesses,” Winegar said. “We’re all doing our own thing, but when someone comes into our gallery, I send them to other members to shop.”

The following is a list of some of the area retail chains and their shopping hours for Thanksgiving and Black Friday:

Field & Stream, 6 p.m. to 2 a.m. (T); 5 a.m. to 10 p.m. (BF)

Five Below, 6 pm. To 1 a.m. (T); 7a.m. to 9 p.m. (BF)

Hobby Lobby, closed (T); 8 a.m. to 9 p.m. (BF)

Kohl’s, 5 p.m. to midnight (t); 12 a.m. to 10 p.m. (BF).

Michaels, 6 p.m. to midnight (T); 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. (BF).

Pier 1 Imports, closed (T); 8 a.m. to 10 p.m.(BF)

Target, 6 p.m. to midnight (T); 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. (BF)

Toys R Us, 5 p.m. to midnight (T); 12 a.m. to 11 p.m. (BF)

Walmart, 6 p.m. to midnight (T); from 12 a.m. (BF)