Mar 10, 2018 7 min read

The commercials, the mailings, the rallies, the door-knocking and the polling are all for naught if people don’t actually show up to vote.

Turnout is the key to any election.

But with just one contest on the March 13 ballot in the 18th Congressional District, how can anyone make a prediction about how many people will show up to vote in the special election?

One indicator of voter interest is the number of absentee ballots requested.

Applications for absentee ballots for this year’s race were due Tuesday. As of Thursday, 1,539 absentee ballots had been requested and 877 had been returned, presumably with votes, to the Washington County elections office.

In Greene County, 210 absentee ballots had been sent out and 191 were returned by Friday morning, Greene Elections Director Tina Kiger said. That number approached the amount in last year’s general election, which included the entire county rather than just the 22 precincts eligible to vote in this special election, Kiger said.

Melanie Ostrander, assistant elections director in Washington County, said she wasn’t sure whether she should attribute large number of absentee ballots to the timing of the special election or exceptional interest.

March 13 is earlier than either April presidential primaries or the more typical mid-May contests, after so-called “snowbirds” have returned from wintering in warmer climates. Of the requests in Washington County for absentee ballots, 752 came from Republicans, 705 from Democrats, and the rest were from people who are independents or who belong to minor parties.

“The turnout will be the story,” said Dr. Joseph DiSarro, head of the political science department at Washington & Jefferson College.

He predicted a 20 to 22 percent turnout and a Saccone win.

“If turnout cracks 30 percent, then it is a different matter,” he said. “I think it’s going to take a Herculean effort to get people to the polls. People are not used to voting in March.”

DiSarro opined that an election in May would’ve boded better for Lamb because “higher turnout favors the Democrat.”

Compare the number of absentee ballots with last November’s off-year election of 2017. There were 889 absentee ballots requested with 576 returned, and the actual turnout in the November contest was 25 percent, better than the low 20s predicted.

Washington County Elections Director Larry Spahr thinks on March 13, “We should be around at least 25 percent because of the bombardment of political advertising on TV. We could go to 28, 30 percent.”

Others say negative advertising, of which there has been a surfeit, depresses voter turnout.

Because the March 13 election is a special contest, it’s difficult to find a recent, similar election.

Spahr went back to the 2010 special congressional election held after the unexpected death of Democratic power broker U.S. Rep. John Murtha of Johnstown, Cambria County, to find a possible equivalent, but even that doesn’t quite fill the bill.

The special election of 2010 took place in conjunction with the May primary that year, three months after Murtha died, when governor, U.S. Senate and seats in the Legislature also were on the ballot.

Just as March 13 brings to the ballot a three-way race with Republican Rick Saccone, Democrat Conor Lamb and Libertarian Drew Gray Miller, in 2010, it was Republican Tim Burns who tried to “flip” a seat into his party’s win column.

The 2010 special election also featured Libertarian Demo Agoris and the eventual victor, Democrat Mark Critz.

As is the case this year, Washington County in 2010 was divided between two congressional districts, the 18th and the 12th, so it wasn’t a countywide election in Washington, but the 12th District eight years ago included all of Greene County.

When the Pennsylvania congressional map was redrawn after the 2010 U.S. Census, Critz lost in 2012 to Republican Keith Rothfus. By that time, the 12th Congressional District had bypassed both Washington and Greene counties, and U.S. Rep. Bill Shuster, a Republican from Blair County, picked up roughly the Mon Valley area of Washington County, from New Eagle heading south to East Bethlehem, and eastern Greene County.

Washington County hasn’t gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since 2004, when John Kerry eked out a win locally over Republican incumbent President George W. Bush, who won a second, four-year term. Greene County turned red in the presidential contests of 2012 and 2016.

One-hundred-twenty-five of Washington County’s 176 precincts are in the 18th District. Donald Trump won all but 10 of the 125 in the 2016 presidential contest against Hillary Clinton. Trump also won the 22 Greene County precincts that will be in play Tuesday.

There’s interest this year, to be sure. Both the Washington and Greene elections offices have received inquiries from people who aren’t sure in which congressional district they reside. And on Feb. 13, the Washington County office received calls from people who wanted to know why their polling place was closed. Apparently the date, but not the month, stuck in their minds.

Both Washington and Greene counties, since 2012, have been divided into both the 18th and 9th districts.

For example, the tiny community of Van Voorhis in Fallowfield Township is split along the lines of Block 1030 of census tract 781700, where 14 people who live in Fallowfield Township’s Second Precinct are eligible to vote in the 18th Congressional District.

“It’s a Republican gerrymandered district,” said DiSarro, himself a Republican.

Morgan Township in Greene County was another example of a community split, in years past, between seats held by U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy and U.S. Rep. Bill Shuster. Those who live in the Lippencott area of Morgan Township are in the 18th Congressional District, while those who live in the Chartiers/Teagarden or Mather precincts reside in the 9th District. The split straddles Jefferson-Morgan School District.

Kiger said her office has received multiple calls from people in the eastern part of the county, especially around Carmichaels, requesting absentee ballots even though they don’t live in the district.

“I am concerned, but we’ve put (the eligible precincts) in the paper,” Kiger said. “There’s not much we can do. I don’t know, I guess we’ll be telling them they won’t be voting (Tuesday). I don’t know what else to do.”

Greene County communities in the 18th District, besides the aforementioned Lippencott, are Waynesburg Borough and Aleppo, Center, Franklin, Freeport, Gilmore, Gray, Jackson, Morris, Perry, Richhill, Springhill, Washington, Wayne and Whiteley townships.

Kiger is considering placing signs on the doors of the other 22 ineligible precincts in the county, making people who come there aware they are not in the 18th District, and therefore can’t vote.

“I think Saccone will prevail because the way the district is drawn favors the Republican candidate. Given the registration, Conor Lamb would have to have a tremendous turnout and Republicans would have to have a very low turnout,” DiSarro said.

And because polls are showing the results within the margin of error, “It will be an interesting race,” he continued. “I thought the Republican would take it without any difficulty at all, but politics have changed.

“I have trouble believing Conor Lamb can win in Washington, Greene or Westmoreland, but he will probably beat Rick Saccone in Allegheny County.”

Although registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the 18th District, DiSarro labeled them “conservative Democrats, what they used to call Reagan Democrats.”

Friday at 5 p.m. was the deadline for returning domestic civilian absentee ballots to the elections office. In this case, postmarks don’t count. The only way to qualify for an absentee ballot after that date is to request an emergency absentee ballot, which must include a notarized, sworn statement that the voter had no prior knowledge of his or her absence from the polls. The courts have ordered the elections office to evaluate the veracity of the sworn statements.

Regional editor Mike Jones contributed to this story.