Emory political scientist forecasts GOP losses in ’18 midterms
Elections expert and Emory University professor Alan Abramowitz speaks about the Democratic outlook for the midterm elections Thursday at California University of Pennsylvania.
Elections expert and Emory University professor Alan Abramowitz speaks about the Democratic outlook for the midterm elections Thursday at California University of Pennsylvania.
Holly Tonini/Observer-Reporter
Elections expert and Emory University professor Alan Abramowitz speaks about the Democratic outlook for the midterm elections Thursday at California University of Pennsylvania.
In the wake of Conor Lamb’s hair’s breadth special election victory last week in the 18th Congressional District, the conventional wisdom has solidified that this year’s midterm elections will be exceptionally tough for Republicans.
The conventional wisdom is probably right on the money, according to a political scientist from Atlanta’s Emory University.
Alan Abramowitz, who specializes in voting behavior, forecasting models and party realignment, told students and faculty at California University of Pennsylvania Thursday the longstanding tendency of an incumbent president’s party to lose seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in midterm elections will almost certainly hold this year. It’s also likely the losses will be exacerbated by President Trump’s chronically low approval ratings.
“These elections are being nationalized,” Abramowitz said in a classroom at Cal U.’s Eberly Hall.
With only a few exceptions, the president’s party has lost ground in Congress during midterm elections, with particularly cataclysmic losses happening in years such as 1946, when Harry S. Truman was president; in 1994, when Bill Clinton was in the White House; and in 2006, when George W. Bush was battered by Hurricane Katrina and the Iraq War. Although Abramowitz pointed out Republicans tend to have a midterm advantage because the party’s core of older, whiter voters turn out more reliably than younger and minority voters, that could end up being erased this year by the anger directed at the president by Democrats and left-leaning independents.
“Democrats are more energized right now than Republicans,” Abramowitz said.
Abramowitz also believes Democrats will make gains in gubernatorial races and state legislative elections in November. But the news is not entirely bad for the GOP, Abramowitz noted – the number of seats in the U.S. Senate in the upcoming cycle will make it harder for Democrats to pick up the two seats they would need to take the majority.
“The Democrats would be very, very lucky to hold their own,” he said. He did note, however, that it’s not inconceivable that Democrats could pick up some Senate seats in unlikely places, such as solidly red states like Tennessee and Mississippi, or in Western states like Nevada or Arizona, that are either turning a lighter shade of red or are light blue.
The author of the upcoming book, “The Great Alignment: Race, Party, Transformation and the Rise of Donald Trump,” Abramowitz made two appearances here in 2016 to talk about that year’s elections. He is due for a return trip to Cal U. in November to discuss the results of the midterm vote.
Abramowitz’s appearance at Cal U. was part of the school’s American Democracy Project, which is designed to foster awareness of candidates, campaign issues and the political process.