Three Interesting NFL Futures Markets for the 25/26 Season
The NFL season is getting into the swing of things, and plenty of exciting narratives are already heating up. Sportsbooks across the US now offer odds on all sorts of markets, letting bettors craft their wagers to fit their favorite storylines. Some of the best bets for this kind of enjoyment are futures markets, that create season long drama and, potentially, surprise picks that can catch oddsmakers off-guard for big profits. So what are some interesting markets for this season?
Well, ahead of the season the race for season MVP was one big point of discussion – but there have since been several big events that have shifted the market dramatically. Another is the AFC West division, where the dominant era-defining Chiefs have suddenly found themselves as underdogs in a tight grouping. These are some of the biggest storyline futures markets in the NFL this season.
MVP Futures Are Heating Up as Burrow out of Running
Before the season began, a lot of the betting market chatter was on the Bengal’s QB Joe Burrow as a tasty underdog pick for the season MVP award. Although a risky bet, lines always offer value on this bet precisely for that reason.
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As many thousands of bettors found out on Sunday. Burrows – available at around +750 for MVP at that time – crashed out with a serious injury in the first quarter of the Bengal’s 31-27 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The future MVP hopeful will need surgery on a toe injury and looks unlikely to play until December at the earliest. This essentially puts him out of the MVP running – and DraftKings has joined many other sportsbooks in taking him off the MVP board entirely.
Outside of Burrows, most of the betting action has been a two horse race between two star quarterbacks – the Baltimore Raven’s Lamar Jackson (+320 on DraftKings) and last season’s MVP the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen (also +320).
AFC and NFC West Division Winners are Super Tight
When it comes to NFL futures, some of the most competitive markets are often the Division winners. This year the AFC and NFC West have been called the Wild Wild West by some pundits, as the race for the top spots are so close.
In the AFC West division, the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves as slight underdogs in a three-way race – despite being nine-time consecutive division winners. The LA Chargers are the slight favorites, with the Denver Broncos just behind. The Las Vegas Raiders have been priced out by the books, and the market considers them unlikely to trouble the top teams in their division. After two weeks of the season, the AFC West division winners market odds on DraftKings are currently as follows:
- LA Chargers – 110
- KC Chiefs – +275
- Denver Broncos +310
- LV Raiders – +1900
With the Chiefs losing two out of two so far, and not having a particularly good preseason either, could this be the end of the winning Patrick Mahomes-era for the Kansas City team?
Arguably even closer is the NFC West. This is the only division where none of the four teams are over +1000 – indicating the ‘books think it could just about be anyone’s game. Just +230 separates the favorites for this division, with underdogs the Seattle Seahawks not too far behind at +800.
All four teams could represent good value here. All have had competitive matchups so far, including some surprise at how competitive the Seahawks have been. Just four points separate each teams’ scoring totals, and their points against totals are also similar. DraftKings currently has the NFC West winners market at:
- SF 49ers +150
- LA Rams + 175
- ARI Cardinals +380
- SEA Seahawks +800
Over/Under Wins Lines Are Good for Surprise Picks
Over/under futures, especially on win lines, are more dynamic than straight division or season winners bets. This means bettors can spot under/overrated picks as they get into a run of form of drop off. These markets are prime for some data analysis, as stats that look at expected versus actual results can highlight teams that are overperforming and could be due a drop off.
One interesting market to watch is Philadelphia. The Eagles have posted 11+ wins for three seasons in a row and won the Super Bowl last season. So DraftKings having them at -110 for both under and over 11.5 season wins might seem a little down on them at first glance.
With two wins already on the board, their odds have improved on the over. But many still think that defensive changes, and a slight overperformance in expected points last season, could see them struggle against improved offences around them.