ISIS could be undone by its incompetence
As 2014 rides off into history, the backward glances at the last 12 months that are certain to be media staples over the next couple of days will almost certainly feature images of fighters from the Islamic State marauding their way across Iraq and Syria.
The army of mostly young, disaffected Islamic extremists made headlines this year for taking advantage of the instability in those two countries and taking over swatches of them, and then gruesomely beheading several Westerners. To paraphrase something Jon Stewart astutely pointed out on one installment of “The Daily Show,” the Islamic State made al-Qaeda look like reasonable moderates in the constellation of Middle Eastern terrorism, which is no small feat.
A New York Times article reported Monday United States officials are trying to get at the root of the appeal of the Islamic State – or ISIS – by looking at its “marketing and branding strategies,” which apparently even extend to T-shirts and mugs. Considering the group is able to lure 1,000 new fighters to its ranks every month, that’s a worthy endeavor, as are U.S.-led airstrikes that, from many reports, stalled the progress of ISIS.
It could very well be, though, the Islamic State will ultimately collapse not because of Western military might, or they will be outmaneuvered by a higher grade of propaganda, but they will be cashiered by their own overwhelming incompetence.
According to a Washington Post article that appeared over the weekend, the organization is dramatically failing at the basics of governance. In their drive to bring a caliphate straight out of the 7th century to that part of the world, they are providing living conditions to match. Hepatitis is spreading, basic supplies dried up, people are scavenging for scraps, garbage isn’t being collected and the water is undrinkable. And good luck trying to find a doctor or medicine if you become sick because of those deteriorating conditions.
Various individuals living under the yoke of ISIS told The Washington Post “slick Islamic State videos depicting functioning government offices and the distribution of aid do not match the reality of growing deprivation and disorganized, erratic leadership …”
One thing the Islamic State is apparently doing yeoman’s work on is enforcing draconian rules revived from far less enlightened times. Smokers are hauled off to jail for failing to quit, which, we have to admit, is a pretty solid incentive to do so. Those accused of homosexuality are thrown to their deaths off tall buildings, and other forms of execution are meted out for dissenting from ISIS edicts, blasphemy or theft. Shop owners must lock up five times per day for prayers, and people are under the watchful eye of a secret police squad looking for the slightest deviations from the party line.
This simply can’t be sustained. Either residents of Iraq and Syria under ISIS control will decide that modern, 21st century life, despite its ambiguity, far outstrips the rigidity of a resuscitated Middle Ages, or they will increasingly thirst to live in a society where the trains run on time.
In the final accounting, ISIS could be undone not by its rancid ideology, but by its incompetence. And all the T-shirts and mugs in the world won’t be able to fix that.