May 15, 2014 4 min read

Since Pennsylvania changed its constitution in the 1960s to allow its governors to serve two terms in office, the commonwealth’s voters have, amazingly, never developed a case of buyer’s remorse. Incumbents are routinely re-elected. The keys to the state chief executive’s office have also been reliably handed off between Democrats and the GOP every eight years. It’s given state politics a flow and, predictably, that’s absent in most of our neighbors.

That could well be upended this year. Gov. Tom Corbett has suffered from anemic approval numbers since his tenure began in 2011, in part surely because of the continuing economic malaise that stretches back to 2008. But the Republican has also come under fire for being a bit more conservative than many voters bargained for, and for tone-deafness when it comes to communicating both with his constituents and lawmakers who determine the fate of his proposals. Corbett shouldn’t start thinking over his private-sector options just yet – incumbency carries a great deal of clout and he will have an overflowing campaign war chest at his disposal – but he will have a much steeper hill to climb this fall than predecessors like Ed Rendell or Dick Thornburgh.

Along with weighing the merits of Corbett’s stewardship this November, voters will have to ponder whether the nominee Democratic voters choose Tuesday is up to the task. Our editorial board was able to talk to three of the four remaining candidates in recent weeks, the sole exception being U.S. Rep. Allyson Schwartz from Montgomery County. We found all three to be impressive. Any one of them would be a solid choice for the top of the state’s Democratic ticket six months hence.

Barring a cataclysm of unimaginable proportions, the nominee will almost certainly be Tom Wolf, the former state revenue secretary and York businessman, who was able to dominate the field early with saturation-level advertising on television and radio. Though he has relatively little experience in government, we were impressed with his grasp of the issues and particularly struck by his keen understanding of economic and financial matters. With his professorial mien, he has appeared to many voters to be a refreshing change of pace from the professional lawmakers who seem to roll off an assembly line. His opponents suggested Wolf might not be sufficiently battle-tested for the fall, but their arguments have largely fallen on deaf ears.

Though the Democratic campaign has become more cutthroat in its final hours, there are actually few areas on which the candidates disagree. All support marriage equality, increased funding for education, imposing an extraction tax on natural gas drillers, loosening marijuana laws and modernizing the state liquor system, though they would stop short of privatization. The state’s treasurer, Rob McCord, has attempted to stand out in the pack by going bold, proposing a higher extraction tax and supporting full legalization of marijuana, though he would regulate and tax it heavily. McCord is ebullient, approachable and, like Wolf, tasted success outside the halls of government. However, his campaign’s decision to air ads linking Wolf to a York mayor accused, and later acquitted, of killing a woman during a 1969 riot in the city has the unmistakable whiff of 11th-hour desperation. Both Rendell and U.S. Sen. Bob Casey correctly admonished McCord for these below-the-belt tactics.

Katie McGinty, who has barely registered in any statewide polls, made much of her working class background and later success as an environmental adviser to President Bill Clinton and as the state’s secretary of Environmental Protection. Like McCord, she is personable, and would undoubtedly help make the state’s air and water much cleaner should she become governor.

That, however, is unlikely. On Tuesday, we think Wolf supporters will have reason to howl.