Jan 14, 2015 4 min read

About this time in 2007, Hillary Clinton and her supporters were making preparations for her expected cakewalk to the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. We all know how that turned out.

Few things are less predictable than presidential races a year before the actual voting begins. The fields are far from set, and trying to figure how the public – and especially the voters in early caucus and primary states – will respond to the candidates is among the most inexact of sciences.

That said, it’s not too early for prospective candidates to start lining up support, as evidenced by the dance being performed right now by Republican heavyweights Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney.

It wasn’t that long ago that Romney was telling anyone within earshot that he had no interest in making a third run for the GOP nomination. Whether he believed that at the time, only he knows. But then along comes Bush, the former Florida governor, who is making it clear that he IS running for the nomination – if not officially, at least by his actions.

Now, suddenly, Romney is changing his tune. As Jon Ward noted in a piece for Yahoo News, there’s a recognition by Romney and his people that if Romney waits much longer before making his intentions known, Bush will have rounded up the big donors and the top campaign professionals.

The tipping point was Bush’s recent meeting with big-money GOP supporters.

One insider told Ward, “(Romney’s) theory of the race was that he could wait for a while and see if the field cracked up, and if it did and there was fragmentation and chaos, there would be an opening for someone like him – a unifying force, tested, vetted. That theory works as long as there’s no strong candidate with equally unifying potential. I think he saw that potential in Jeb. I just don’t think he thought Jeb was going to run.”

The source said Spencer Zwick, Romney’s finance chairman in 2012, was alarmed by the “buzz” created by Bush’s meeting with the “money men.”

“Spencer is close to the donors,” the source said, “and he was picking up how much excitement there was based on Jeb’s visit. I think that accelerated the calendar.”

Now, according to the Yahoo News report, the thinking is that Romney will need to make his decision by Jan. 28, when he’s scheduled to deliver a speech at Mississippi State University. Will that speech double as an announcement that Romney is throwing his hat in the ring again? Perhaps. But as history tells us, his entry in the race would guarantee nothing. And even if Romney decides not to get involved, it’s hardly certain that Bush will be the last man (or woman) standing in the GOP fray.

In 2008, actor and former senator Fred Thompson was believed to be a heavyweight contender for the Republican nomination, but once he finally entered the race, he proved to be terrible on the campaign trail. It was much the same in 2012 when Texas Gov. Rick Perry climbed into the GOP contest. He was supposed to be a 500-pound gorilla, but he turned out to be a chimp.

At this point, most surveys show Bush leading the Republican field, with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie the only other potential candidate attracting double-digit support. Those polls don’t include Romney.

We are still more than a year away from the first caucuses and polls, and when the dust clears, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bush or Romney heading into November with the Republican nomination. But it also wouldn’t be a surprise if someone else grabbed that brass ring, even someone who’s barely a blip on the radar right now.

Ask Hillary Clinton about that.