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Bumps in the road to another coronation

4 min read
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After Tuesday night, one has to wonder whether there’s a growing number of Democrats who are a bit unsettled about having Hillary Clinton as the presumptive presidential nominee of their party.

Some polls leading up to Tuesday’s Michigan primary had the former first lady leading Sen. Bernie Sanders by comfortable margins, some by more than 20 points. But when the real counting was done, Sanders had pulled off a stunning upset. How stunning? Even Sanders didn’t think he’d win, as evidenced by the fact that he spoke to his supporters roughly five hours before he was ultimately declared the victor. If he had thought there was any chance he’d prevail, he would have held off and given a real victory speech.

One can only imagine the angst in Clinton’s camp as Sanders took a lead in early returns and never gave it up. And it’s not the first time in this Democratic campaign that Sanders has won in a state where Clinton once enjoyed a huge cushion in the polls.

Questions about Clinton’s strength as a candidate, one who can draw people to her cause and create a groundswell of enthusiasm, should have existed from the beginning. Remember the coronation that was planned in 2008, when she was going to waltz to the nomination? And then Barack Obama happened.

The first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses offered another clue. Clinton scored the narrowest of victories, and even that may have been tainted by some vote-counting shenanigans. Sanders then won the New Hampshire primary, but that was expected because he’s from neighboring Vermont. Clinton soon rebounded with wins in Nevada and South Carolina, and she added a string of victories, many of them in southern states, on March 1, or “Super Tuesday.”

But Sanders didn’t go away. He won just enough to keep things interesting, claiming victories that day in Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and in his home state. Sanders added wins last Saturday in Kansas and Nebraska, while Clinton was winning in Louisiana, and he notched a victory Sunday in Maine. But nothing could have prepared the Clinton forces for what happened Tuesday in Michigan.

Clinton entered this election season with nearly every possible advantage, including a Democratic National Committee that many argue is in her back pocket. Yet she has been unable to put away a 74-year-old Democratic socialist who was little known beyond followers of the political class until mere months ago. Sure, she is still the odds-on pick to claim the nomination. She’s heavily favored in the key Florida primary next week, and also holds massive leads in the polls in Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio.

She can right the ship next week, provided there are no more come-from-behind shockers by Sanders, but what about November?

It would seem likely that either of the Democrats could beat Donald Trump in the general election. We can’t help but figure that a considerable majority of American voters, even a significant number of Republican voters, would be unable to bring themselves to cast a ballot for Trump and put the country in his hands. But what if Trump is not the nominee? Sen. Ted Cruz seems most likely to forge ahead if Trump stumbles, but he’s hardly more likable. Current polls show Clinton ahead of Trump but trailing Cruz, while Sanders has a larger advantage over Trump and a nearly double-digit gap over Cruz.

Imagine, though, if no GOP candidate has the requisite number of delegates and there ends up being a brokered convention. What if the party turned again to Mitt Romney, a steady, fairly moderate and – key factor here – not scary candidate? Clinton would find herself in a quandary. She could continue on the more liberal course that she has charted of late to fend off Sanders, but that might cost her the votes of some conservative Democrats and independents. Or, she could tack back toward the center that she has occupied for much of her political career, but that could cost her the backing of Sanders’ supporters, who just might stay home.

There are very legitimate reasons for Democrats to be worried about Hillary Clinton as their standard bearer in November.

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