Nov 4, 2018 6 min read

Looking at the future is, at once, stimulating and frightening. It is difficult to predict what will be with any certainty, but examining large-scale trends can give one some very valuable insight into broad realities.

The future is not immutable and unchangeable. The future can be planned and, to some degree, controlled. Planning involves considering what the future might be and bringing it into the present day so that we can shape it to our desire.

That being said, consider some forecasts of what our future economy and geo-politics may look like and the forces shaping them.

Looking at the future on such a massive scale is certainly not easy because we live in a world that is changing and evolving faster than ever. Underlying many of the forces of change is the speed of communication and connectedness. Ideas and innovations are now communicated around the world virtually instantaneously. With the instant communication of ideas comes the reality of changing values and desires, fluid demographics and political uncertainty.

Technology is one of the fundamental forces of change. The major businesses of the world have been industrially focused for at least 200 years. Technology has radically changed how business is conducted.

Information technology has subsumed our world, and today information is more valuable than hard goods. This is clearly demonstrated by how the equity markets value businesses such as Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.

Information technology is leveraging broad connectivity with massive networking. Combined with emerging fields like artificial intelligence on a massive scale we create global conglomerates impossible to compete with. Combine that with data-driven sales and marketing and the business environment changes daily.

Technology has also enabled entirely new venues of industry such as space technology, nano-technology and deep-ocean exploration.

As the pace of technological change increases, markets must adapt faster and faster. The time between the radio and color television was about 40 years. Remember the game Pokemon Go? It gained 50 million users in 19 days. The corollary to this is that businesses are created and disappear at an accelerated rate. Agility is a key.

Populations are shifting. In the western nations and China, populations are stabilizing. In Africa and in other Asian countries population is growing rapidly and quickly urbanizing. By the end of this century, it is possible that North America, Europe, South America and China will be home to none of the world’s 20 largest cities.

With shifts in global population, there will also be rapid shifts in global wealth. To take advantage of rapidly developing global opportunities, investors need staggering amounts of wealth.

The respected geo-political forecaster Stratfor makes a number of important observations.

In Europe, there will be increased nationalism. This comes about because of many divergent economic, cultural and social forces. Because of this, Europe will become more unstable and more unpredictable.

Russia will attempt to convert their huge raw material export trade to higher value process commodity exports to prop up its staggering economy. They will also try to create territorial buffers. The Russian upheaval will create a lot of concern among bordering nations. This will impact security alliances.

China’s economy will decline in its rate of growth and China will be hard pressed to bring its financial systems into some type of balance.

America will experience an increase in both economic and military power. The United States will continue as the dominant military power in the world while producing 25 percent of the world’s wealth annually.

Several major trends emerge from this. First, the European Union will not return to its former self even if it survives. It will be weaker and more fragmented. The European Free Trade Zone will not continue without increasing national protectionism. Germany will suffer economically, and Poland will increase its regional power as Germany fades.

Through all of the world’s struggles, the United States will remain the dominant economic, political and military power but will be less engaged in extraterritorial issues. The United States will decrease its economic reliance on exports. It will figure out that the North American market is both viable and profitable.

The world will be a more chaotic place. The United States will continue to be a stabilizing force but no longer the world’s policeman. Crises will develop and be dealt with but not without suffering. There is no perfect peace.

So what does this tell us that we can plan for and change?

It tells us that while we become more energy self-sufficient, the energy transport business, as an example, will change dramatically. The huge shipping industry will restructure and refocus.

Our military must reassess its required capabilities with the changing political realities of other nations and the role that the United States will play. The defense industry is likely to continue to be huge but will be dramatically reshaped.

With declining exports, America must focus on the requirements of a North American market which will mean closer integration with Mexico and Canada. Food exports will continue to be significant as energy exports quickly ramp up.

Around the world, and especially in Europe, nation states will increase as treaty groups such as the EU disappear. This will lead to more bilateral trade agreements.

While the above mentioned are a smattering of world geo-political trends, the message is clear to the United States. We will have to leverage emerging technological advances to create entirely new forms of company organization. Vast requirements for capital and increasingly fragmented markets will require huge but nimble organizations with the ability to use information and data at blinding speeds. Our workforce must acquire entirely new skill sets.

The way we make, market and consume will change dramatically and at an increasingly rapid rate.

Political structures will be forced to change with the change in economy and technology. Successful political entities will learn to harness technology and information.

In summary, over the next decade, winners in business and government will be nimble, expert in technology and the use of data. They will not cling to the past.

Dave Ball is vice chairman of the Washington County Republican Party and a Peters Township councilman.