Apr 19, 2020 4 min read

The year 2020 promised to be a really good year for the people of Washington County. Then, in mid-January, serious health concerns arose in China. What was a localized problem metastasized and, at the end of January, the president formed the COVID-19 Task Force to develop plans to protect the U.S.

By mid-February, the 2019-nCoV virus had been named COVID-19. Based upon virtually no reliable data, computer models were constructed to predict its potential impact on the U.S. The only place the virus had any history at all was China, where reports of the numbers of people infected and the numbers of people who had died were universally acknowledged as suspect. Based on less than solid input, computer models, most notoriously the Imperial College of London model, produced projections that 2.2 million Americans could die. That was revised to 1.2 million, then 200,000, then 81,000, and then 61,000 as more realistic data was received. The model envisioned incredible spikes in demand for hospital facilities and equipment such as ventilators.

It was obvious, even without flawed modeling, that we needed to avoid steep waves of infection. Since the virus is passed person to person, it is reasonable to keep people separated to slow the spread. The visual for this is called “flattening the curve.” The point that is intended to be shown is that not as many resources will be required at any given time by a flatter incidence curve. That requires reducing the rate of infection. By making it harder for person to person spread to occur, this is accomplished. If, for example, the number of hospital beds and ventilators needed are the number needed to meet the maximum load, then by flattening the curve, fewer are needed. A good, accurate model would only tell us if we had enough with a flattened curve or how much the curve had to be flattened to match maximum capacity.

This process of reducing contact was given a fancy name – social distancing. The first measures instituted were fairly reasonable and consisted of various ways to stay away from crowds. Athletic events were canceled. Large gatherings were canceled. Social spacing was initiated at other gatherings. People were asked to not form tight groups in stores and other businesses.

In mid-March, Gov. Tom Wolf declared a state of emergency. Using emergency powers he alleged he had under Title 35, he divided all the businesses in the state into what were termed “life preserving” and “non-life preserving,” the definition of which remains a mystery because the list is inconsistent. Then, on a Thursday night, after the close of business, he ordered all non-life-preserving businesses shut down. Among the businesses that were not allowed to work were construction, metal fabrication and furniture making, although rubber, plastics and steel mills could work. Some wholesalers could remain open but not others. Hardware stores could remain open but not lawn and garden stores. Real estate offices may not be open. Beer stores, yes, but liquor stores no. School bus operations could remain open, but schools were closed. Doctors’ offices could be open for limited functions, but dentist offices could not. Nonsensical.

Wolf’s directive is one of the more Draconian and certainly more poorly reasoned among all states in the area and for no apparent reason.

At the outset of the virus problem, there were at least two general directions that could have been taken: the brute force solution and the refined and targeted solution.

The targeted solution would have been to look carefully at where actual infections were occurring and isolate those demographics from contamination and at scarce medical resources and consider creative sources of supply. For example, it would appear that a high percentage of serious medical problems occur in persons over 65 with certain underlying medical conditions. Have those people self-quarantine for some period of time. Same with people with other medical compromises. For the remainder of the population, require masks, social distancing, frequent washing and good workplace hygiene. Then most of the workforce is working and the result would likely be just as good. Probably even better when you factor in the lack of destruction to society.

The brute force solution is what we have. Indiscriminate shutdown, one-size-fits-all pain. All society destroyed. Lingering suffering for years.

OK, you have five seconds to choose the smartest option.

Our governor didn’t. Time to change course.

Dave Ball is vice chairman of the Republican Party of Washington County and a Peters Township councilman.