Apr 23, 2020 2 min read

While studying for a philosophy degree at Washington & Jefferson College, we learned the value of free and independent thought. Our instructors also taught us not to form conclusions in search of facts and to recognize what we do not know.

And then there is Dave Ball. Why his op-eds serve as the local Trump misinformation outlet through the Observer-Reporter is a bit of a mystery, but that is his right and your prerogative. And yet, as Sen. Pat Moynihan famously said, “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts.”

Last week, he wrote that “(a)s of April 15, there have been 26,000 deaths from COVID-19 and 60,000 from flu,” which is misleading at best. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, that is the very high end of its estimated flu deaths this year, and it has estimated between “between 12,000 to 61,000 deaths annually since 2010,” which translates to about between about 60 and 350 Americans dying on the seasonal flu’s best and worst days. By comparison, COVID-19 has averaged nearly 2,000 American deaths per day in April, just one devastating problem of this pandemic and reason it is not the same as the flu.

He also cited “projections that 2.2 million Americans could die. That was revised to 1.2 million, then 200,000, then 81,000, and then 61,000 as more realistic data was received.” Drs. Deborah Birx and Anthony Fauci, who should be viewed as the universal authority to those who value truth and knowledge, immediately discounted a projection of 1 million to 2 million deaths when confronted with those numbers, since that is the most extreme scenario that would only occur if we took no actions whatsoever, a nonsensical metric. The models have evolved based upon our societal behaviors, which have been mostly but unfortunately not entirely cooperative. They are not intended for use as a tool to declare victory regardless of the final number.

Now there are 45,150 dead, and the final number will largely depend upon whether our acceptance of facts is not determined by our support of Donald Trump or Joe Biden.

Brian Gorman

Pittsburgh