Oct 10, 2020 3 min read

To borrow a phrase from Marlon Brando in “On the Waterfront,” Pat Toomey coulda been a contender in 2022.

It had been widely whispered that Pennsylvania’s junior U.S. senator was planning on taking his leave from Washington, D.C., and return to the commonwealth so he could run for governor. So it came as a shock when word circulated last weekend that Toomey was not only planning to forego a reelection bid for his Senate seat two years hence, but would also be sidestepping a race to succeed Democrat Tom Wolf and will instead be returning to private life.

At a press conference Monday, Toomey explained that he wanted to tamp down speculation about his plans by making the announcement now. The 58-year-old Republican also said he wanted to spend more time with his family after having spent 18 of the last 24 years in the political arena.

It also could be that Toomey has been reading some tea leaves lately. He first won the Senate seat in the Republican sweep of 2010 by 2%, and was reelected by a 1.5% margin in 2016. Given the Trump-driven collapse of support for the GOP in Pennsylvania’s suburbs, particularly those around Philadelphia, Toomey might have believed he’d be in for another tooth-and-claw brawl to hang onto his seat, or become governor.

Though Toomey has never embraced the hard-edged populist style of conservatism that the president has brought to the fore, no one has doubted his conservative bonafides during his time in public life. It’s questionable whether the Reagan-era principles Toomey championed – reduced taxes, free trade and deregulation – can adequately fix what is wrong in our economy and society in the 2020s, but Toomey deserves credit for sticking with them. Toomey opposed many of Donald Trump’s tariff and trade policies, and opposed the emergency declaration on the Southern border. Toomey also deserves admiration from partisans on both the left and the right for his efforts to expand background checks on gun sales, though they were ultimately unsuccessful.

Even though the 2020 season is heading toward its denouement, you can bet that potential candidates, their allies and insatiable political junkies across the state are already sizing up potential gubernatorial and senatorial candidates. On the Democratic side, Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro is considered highly likely to run for governor, and it’s taken as a given that Lt. Gov. John Fetterman will make either a second run for the U.S. Senate or try to run for governor. U.S. Rep. Conor Lamb, who represents portions of the South Hills, is also mentioned as a possibility for the Senate, as is Chrissy Houlahan, a U.S. representative from a portion of the Philadelphia suburbs. Joe Torsella, the state’s treasurer, is also reportedly interested in running for governor.

On the Republican side, U.S. Rep. Guy Reschenthaler, the congressman for Washington, Greene, Fayette and part of Westmoreland counties, is seen as a potential candidate for either office, as is state Sen. Camera Bartolotta, whose district includes Washington, Greene, and parts of Beaver counties. Other names that have come up include William McSwain, the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Pennsylvania; Glenn Thompson, a congressman whose district includes several northern rural counties; and Lloyd Smucker, a congressman whose district includes Lancaster.

You can bet all of these folks will be working the phones after the votes are counted next month.