Mar 11, 2013 5 min read

Most of the big names hitting free agency aren’t big stars anymore.

Sure, Ed Reed is coming off helping a Super Bowl season with Baltimore, Wes Welker catches 100 passes every year, and Dashon Goldson is an All-Pro.

But this crop is more about aging defensive players such as Charles Woodson, Brian Urlacher and Ronde Barber. And then are some solid but hardly unforgettable receivers and running backs: Greg Jennings, Mike Wallace, Reggie Bush and Michael Turner.

When full free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m., with all 32 teams under the $123 million salary cap, the bidding wars might be furious for a while. Or perhaps not, considering the dangers of signing players beyond their peak years to rich deals that can financially hamstring teams in the future.

There is talent out there, just maybe not talent that commands top dollar. Especially considering the risks of such a deal.

“We did this study to try to determine what the hit rate was,” says Bill Polian, who built the Bills, Panthers and Colts into Super Bowl teams and now is analyst for ESPN and SiriusXM. “It ends up in our study being about what it was for the draft, right around 50 percent, slightly above that.

“You then get into the qualitative judgment or subjective judgment of ‘at what cost?’ So player A, who cost you $12 million a year, is he a success if he starts or is he a success if he helps you get to the playoffs?”

The number of free agents who helped their teams get to the playoffs last season is impressive. From the Super Bowl rosters alone are Baltimore safety Reed, linebacker Dannell Ellerbe and LB-DE Paul Kruger; 49ers safety Goldson, DT Isaac Sopoaga, TE Delanie Walker and WR Randy Moss.

And you can throw in Welker, Turner, Sam Baker, Dan Koppen, Andre Smith and Fred Davis.

Both backfields are loaded with candidates without contracts. Joining Reed, Goldson, Woodson and Barber among defensive backs available are Aqib Talib, Brent Grimes, Kenny Phillips, LaRon Landry and brother Dawan Landry, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Keenan Lewis, and Quentin Jammer.

Tailbacks and fullbacks include Bush, Turner, Steven Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Jerome Felton, Shonn Greene and Rashard Mendenhall.

Polian warns about one position being a risk in the draft: wide receiver. But he says in free agency, that’s not necessarily the case.

So spending big bucks on Welker, Wallace, Jennings, or taking a gamble on Moss, Deion Branch or Julian Edelman might pay off.

AP Source: Vikings trade Harvin to Seahawks: Percy Harvin is on his way to Seattle to join the Seahawks.

A person with knowledge of the deal told the Associated Press that the Minnesota Vikings have agreed to trade the unhappy receiver to Seattle for a package that includes the Seahawks’ first-round draft pick in April. The person requested anonymity because the deal will not be official until Harvin passes a physical.

Foxsports.com first reported the trade and also reported that Seattle included a seventh-rounder this year and a mid-round draft pick in 2014. The deal gives Russell Wilson one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers.

Harvin was unhappy with his contract and his role in the Vikings’ struggling passing offense. He missed the final six games last season with an ankle injury.

Super Bowl rings stolen from former player’s home: Authorities say burglars made off with two Super Bowl rings from the Las Vegas-area home of former San Francisco 49ers kicker Mike Cofer.

Cofer told Henderson police he was watching his son’s high school baseball game when the break-in occurred Thursday at his four-bedroom home.

Cofer’s ex-wife, Lisa Cofer, told the Las Vegas Sun the thieves also took a coin collection, an Xbox game console and several games. She says they left a diamond ring.

Watt, Von Miller, Bailey to take part in USO trip: NFL stars J.J. Watt, Von Miller and Champ Bailey will take part in a weeklong visit to U.S. troops at military bases throughout the Middle East. The league said Monday that Carolina Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith, Cleveland Browns linebacker D’Qwell Jackson and Tampa Bay Buccaneers guard Davin Joseph will also be on the trip.

The NFL and USO have been organizing overseas visits with players for more than 45 years.

Extra points: Cornerback DeAngelo Hall was cut Monday by the Washington Redskins, who are over the cap because of an $18 million sanction for the way they structured contracts during the 2010 uncapped season. … The Arizona Cardinals released running back Beanie Wells after four injury-plagued seasons. … The Dallas Cowboys released linebacker Dan Connor and restructured the contracts DeMarcus Ware, Jason Witten, Miles Austin and cornerback Brandon Carr, who got a $50 million, five-year free-agent deal from Dallas last March.”