Apr 22, 2021 5 min read

A little later this week, the NFL Draft will be held. And it will be unlike any other draft we’ve seen in years.

With COVID restrictions and cancellations in place, teams will know less about players than they have in a very long time. And when you add the players who either opted out or were in programs that did not play last fall, it figures to be a wild three days.

The Steelers, of course, pick 24th in the first round. That’s right outside the range of the sure first-round picks. This year, that cutoff point is right around the 15th selection.

In every draft, there are 12 to 18 players any team would take regardless of need. After that, you can throw a blanket over the next 40 to 50 selections. They’ll all be graded similarly and come off the board based on team need.

That doesn’t mean the Steelers won’t get one of those top 15 players. But it’s unlikely.

But the Steelers will have a list of 24 players they would take with the 24th pick. And while those top 15 will be gone, the Steelers will likely be picking from a group that includes a combination of offensive tackle Teven Jenkins of Oklahoma State, running backs Najee Harris of Alabama, Travis Etienne of Clemson and Javonte Williams of North Carolina, linebackers Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah of Notre Dame and Zaven Collins of Tulsa, and centers Landon Dickerson of Alabama and Creed Humphrey of Oklahoma.

When you’re picking in the bottom half of the first round, the old “best player available” mantra goes out the window. All of those players will have similar grades. So, teams are then drafting based on need.

The biggest need for the Steelers is a starting running back. They don’t have one on their current roster. And the aforementioned threesome is far and away better than the rest of the running backs in this draft.

That doesn’t mean one of the backs taken later won’t be a hit. But Harris, Etienne and Williams are all Day 1, unquestioned starters.

Any of the other players mentioned would be, as well. But the Steelers have players on their roster capable of filling those spots.

They don’t have a starting running back. And that is why Harris, Etienne or Williams will be the team’s top pick.

• There’s a theory among the analytics-based football people that using a first-round pick on a running back is a waste of draft capital.

That theory says starting running backs can be found later in the draft.

That’s fine, if you’ve already got your starter in place and are looking for someone to back him up and potentially take the job in the future. That’s what happened for the Steelers in 2017 when they took James Conner in the third round.

But they’ve taken a running back in the middle rounds in each of the three

seasons since and none of them have hit – the jury is still out on Anthony McFarland.

Taking another mid-round pick and hoping he turns into the starter, or that McFarland does, isn’t much of a plan.

And it won’t improve what was the NFL’s worst rushing offense in 2020.

• Yes, the Steelers need a center. B.J. Finney is a nice stopgap, but he’s started only 13 games in his career.

And while Dickerson and Humphrey are the top prospects at the position in this draft, the group after them is talented and reasonably deep.

The Steelers can potentially select Wisconsin-Whitewater’s Quinn Meinerz in the second round if Humphrey or Dickerson are not available. Or they can take Kendrick Green of Illinois, Josh Myers of Ohio State or Notre Dame’s Robert Hainsey, a tackle many believe will move to center, in the third round.

All have starting ability, if not right away then in the near future.

• This also is an exceptionally deep offensive tackle class. If the Steelers pass on a tackle in the first round, there are several potential starters, either right away or early in their careers, who will be available in the second and third rounds.

This draft is at least 15 deep with potential starting offensive tackles. And there are some late-round sleepers who could develop.

The NFL only needs 32 starting centers. And most of those jobs are already filled. But it needs 64 starting offensive tackles. The tackles will go off the board fast and furious in the first 50 or so picks. But after that, it’s doubtful that teams that need them will draft two.

That will cause some quality tackles to fall into the second half of the second round and into the third.