Proposed NCAA roster changes could put squeeze play on high school recruits

By John Sacco
For the Observer-Reporter
newsroom@observer-reporter.com
High school junior student-athletes are wondering how a pending antitrust settlement that would eliminate thousands of Division I athletic roster spots by the start of the 2025-2026 will impact their recruitments and, ultimately, where they’ll end up in college.
The roster reductions, which have begun to cause established or recruited athletes to lose scholarship offers, have speculation running rampant that the settlement would trigger a “trickle-down” effect on NCAA Division II and III schools in the near and future term.
The roster limitations legislation has not reached the final stage, in preparation for implementing changes mandated by the $2.8 billion U.S. House-NCAA settlement.
The athletic directors of the three Washington and Greene County institutions — PennWest California University, Washington & Jefferson College and Waynesburg University — expressed some ideas of what the fallout might look like. All were hesitant to predict exact outcomes and impact.
“I believe we’re starting to see individuals who have been impacted by this already in the transfer portal,” said Dr. Karen Hjerpe, athletic director at PennWest California. “Division II and III students-athletes could be looking for a place to call home.
“I think the (roster reductions) could create more challenges for high school athletes as they move forward. Some of the implications might lead to a Division IV expansion of club sports. We’ve been seeing how athletics are used to build the student numbers in building a university or college. It’s been a strategy that will likely continue.
“I think the impact will happen pretty quick once the agreement is approved.”
Hjerpe added that “walk-ons” have historically played a role in D-I programs because of current NCAA scholarship limits but could go by the wayside.
Three local athletes continue to think about these roster cuts and the impact on all of college sports.
Marco Faieta is a dual-sport junior at Canon-McMillan High School. He is a standout lacrosse player and an all-conference football player in the WPIAL’s Class 6A.
While he leans toward lacrosse, he’s good enough in to play either sport collegiately.
Faieta said the settlement and impending roster restrictions could alter his and others’ thinking moving forward.
“I’m up in the air,” Faieta said. “I would say these new rules are a concern, in that what will this all mean? Deciding now may take longer.”
Everything could be delayed.
“I wonder about being in high school and a 23-year-old athlete somewhere is deciding or having one (roster spot) made for him and it is making it tougher for the younger athlete. The process means a lot. Right now, I don’t know where I’ll fit.”
Shrinking rosters
Part of the new agreement would establish new limits for the maximum roster size of each Division I NCAA-sponsored sport, decreasing D-I opportunities by at least 4,739 spots, if the settlement is approved.
According to some preliminary (unofficial) numbers, the new maximum roster size for 19 of 43 NCAA sports would be smaller than the current average roster in those sports.
Sports such as a football, baseball and women’s soccer would be disproportionately impacted.
According to a published ESPN report, football teams would lose the most players, slipping from an average FBS roster size of 121 to a maximum of 105 players. Those limits have raised concerns among football coaches about player safety and the fate of walk-on players.
“Right now, it seems there could be less roster spots available in Division I,” said Scott McGuinness, Washington & Jefferson College’s athletic director. “College athletics are experiencing significant changes; however, Division III is the NCAA’s largest division with 430 members and we know this model works well. Those who don’t follow Division III closely may be surprised at how talented you have to be to compete at this level. So, there are no guarantees for how this future plays out.”
In addition, some baseball players might benefit from increased scholarship money, but nearly one in five current roster spots in the sport are likely to disappear by the start of the 2025-26 school year under the deal. The average roster size last spring was 41.9 players. Teams will be limited to a maximum of 34 players starting next year. Women’s soccer rosters will shrink more than 10 percent from an average size of 31.2 to a maximum of 28.
“It’s likely there will be a trickle-down effect into Division II and III,” said Tim Fusina, Waynesburg University’s athletic director. “Division III schools should have some opportunities to gain student-athletes through the changes.
“It’s going to create a 24-7 recruiting process for all sports with dealing with transfer portal, recruiting high school athletes and keeping tabs on some recruits who got away initially but might turn to your program if things don’t work out.”
Uncertain times
The proposed or “leaked” reduction numbers have moved several college coaches to renege on verbal promises they made because of the pending uncertainty about roster sizes.
Junior Joe Wilson (6-3, 265) of Washington entered the 2024 football season as one of the top players on the offensive line in the area. He suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in a knee during the first half of the first game and missed the rest of the regular season.
The new roster sizes and missing his junior year to injury have left his recruitment in question.
“I’m not worried,” Wilson said. “If I play well enough, I think some school will want me. I was thinking I may get an offer from Pitt this year. Now, I don’t know. I’m willing to play at a good school.
“If you’re good enough, someone will be interested. I must play well and get an offer. I’m willing to work my way up. It’s hard to know what schools are thinking. I’m going to work hard and ball out. Worrying about it won’t do me any good.”
Carmichaels’ junior softball pitcher Bailey Barnyak is concerned about her future. She doesn’t have any preconceived notions. She pitched in the PIAA Class A championship game in the spring.
“The transfer portal will be a big part of the time I’m in college,” Barnyak said. “To me, recruiting is horrifying and it might get worse.
“I want to be somewhere I like and can make an impact for the team. These new things just cloud it all.”
Her mom, Nikki Gasti Onderko, pitched for Pitt after leading the Mikes to a state title in 1998, shares her daughter’s uncertainty.
Said Onderko, who is a Carmichaels assistant coach: “It’s very crazy right now. Where Bailey is right now is uncertain. This development is just one more thing for a student-athlete, parent and a coach to navigate.”