Steelers still need a few more wins
By Dale Lolley
For the Observer-Reporter
newsroom@observer-reporter.com
Last week’s loss in Cleveland was a tough one for the Steelers.
Had they won that game, their spot in the postseason would have been all but assured. As it is, they still have an excellent chance to reach the postseason.
But the question now is if they will be the AFC North champions and have at least one home playoff game, or if they’ll be forced to go on the road again, as they have done in each of their past two postseason trips, losing games at Kansas City and Buffalo.
With the Steelers’ loss at Cleveland and Baltimore’s win Monday night against the Chargers, the Steelers’ lead in the AFC North is one game in the loss column as Baltimore still has yet to have its bye week.
The Steelers head to Cincinnati this week for yet another AFC North game, while the Ravens host the red-hot Eagles.
A win by the Steelers and loss by the Ravens would again put the Steelers firmly in control of the AFC North. A loss and a win by the Ravens would push them out of first place in the division.
The Steelers still have home games remaining against the Browns, Bengals and Chiefs, with road games at Philadelphia and Baltimore after this week.
The Ravens have home games remaining against the Steelers and Browns, with road games against the Giants and Texans.
That Dec. 21 meeting between the Steelers and Ravens looms large – if both teams continue to win.
The Steelers have won eight of the past nine meetings between the two teams, but sweeping Baltimore this season will be difficult.
Both teams figure to be firmly in the postseason, barring an unforeseen collapse.
Since the playoffs expanded to seven teams in each conference in 2020, 76.8 percent of the teams that were in the playoff positions entering Thanksgiving Day made the playoffs.
And with the Steelers and Ravens both having eight wins at this point, they seem reasonably safe considering the eighth spot in the AFC entered this week at 5-6.
But more wins are needed.
• The Steelers can’t continue to struggle in the red zone as they have – 17-for-42 scoring touchdowns – and get where they want to be.
That, however, is not simply a Justin Fields vs. Russell Wilson issue.
In Fields’ starts, the Steelers were 9-for-18 in the red zone scoring touchdowns. In Wilson’s five starts, they are 8-for-20.
But both are small sample sizes. Overall, it’s been a Steelers issue, not necessarily a quarterback issue.
The offensive line could do a better job of getting a push in goal-to-go situations, while scheming some guys open as opposed to settling for one-on-one balls to the receivers might also be a better plan.
Wilson has been too good in his career in the red zone, throwing 225 touchdown passes against 15 interceptions, for that to continue.
• The Steelers have 19 passing plays of 30 or more yards, which helps offset some of the red zone issues. That’s the same number of 30-yard passing plays the Steelers had in 2023 – in 17 games.
• The Bengals are 1-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less. If the Steelers can keep things close against Cincinnati, then they should have the wherewithal to win.
This week’s games
Steelers (plus 3) at Bengals: It’s kind of disrespectful for an 8-3 team to be getting points on the road against a 4-7 team, but those who set the lines still don’t respect the Steelers. The red zone offense has been an issue all season, but Cincinnati allows a 70 percent touchdown rate in the red zone, which is 31st in the NFL. Cincinnati’s wins also have come against teams with a combined 10-34 record. The Bengals can win this game, but the bet here is their defense won’t let them. Take the Steelers, 27-24.
Browns (plus 5½) at Broncos: The Browns are 2-2 with Jameis Winston at quarterback. What could have been if they had started the season with him instead of Deshaun Watson. Denver’s defense is legit. Take the Browns to cover in a 20-17 loss.
Eagles (plus 3) at Ravens: The Ravens played a physical game Monday night against the Chargers, and now fly back across the country for a big matchup against another physical team in the Eagles. Philadelphia is the better team. Take the Eagles, 27-26.
Texans (minus 5) at Jaguars: After losing an embarrassing game at home to the Titans, it’s tough to see the Texans losing again this week to a finesse team such as the Jaguars, even though Jacksonville is coming off a bye. Take the Texans, 27-20.
Rams (minus 3) at Saints: If the Rams want to stay relevant in the NFC West playoff chase, this is a game they must have. The Saints have played better of late, but they’ll have a tough time keeping up with Los Angeles’ offense. Take the Rams, 30-20.
Last week: 3-3 ATS, 4-2 straight up
Overall: 35-26 ATS; 41-20 straight up
Dale Lolley hosts The Drive on Steelers Nation Radio and writes a Sunday column for the Observer-Reporter.