Figuring the numbers for the Wild Things
Clouds of inevitability still hover over Wild Things Park. The math does not allow even the heartiest faithful to believe that Washington can rally and win the Frontier League’s West Division title. Even securing a playoff berth — the second- and third-place finishers will advance to a wild-card game — will be difficult as the Wild Things sit 6½ games behind third-place Evansville heading into a key series that begins tonight at Schaumburg, the second-place team.
Even so, days like Sunday, when the Wild Things steamrolled the Joliet Slammers, 9-0, told us that such inevitability is not a topic within the home team’s clubhouse.
“Nobody has said we’re eliminated,” Washington manager Tom Vaeth said. “We’re going to keep playing hard. We’re going to try to win as many of these remaining series as we can.”
Washington currently has a 30-36 record with 30 games remaining.
The Wild Things haven’t swept an opponent since taking three from New York, May 16-18, in the second series of the season. And their longest winning streak since then is only three games (July 1-4, against Schaumburg and Windy City). Both of those trends will have to end in a hurry.
Winning two out of every three games is unlikely to get Washington in the playoff race unless one of the teams ahead of it totally collapses.
Evansville is in third place at 36-29 and 6½ games ahead of Washington. The Wild Things have six games remaining with the Otters, including three at Bosse Field (Aug. 11-13) in Evansville and three at Wild Things Park (Aug. 18-20). Washington, it seems, would have to win at least five of those games to significantly better its situation.
So how many wins will it take for the Wild Things to finish in third place? Do they need something like the 14-game winning streak Quebec recently put together that vaulted it from fifth place in the East to first place? Will it take a couple of 8-2 stretches, like the one Tri-City is currently on and has moved the ValleyCats into first place in the East?
There is not much history to pull from when looking for a magic wins number that will get Washington to the postseason. The Frontier League, which has 16 teams, is in only its second season with that many clubs. Last year, it took 56 wins to make the playoffs in the East and 52 in the West. The wins total in the East is inflated because that division includes the homeless Empire State Greys.
In the four years (2012-15) the Frontier League played with 14 teams, the third-place finisher in each division averaged 52.1 wins, with a high of 57 and a low of 49.
That tells us that 52 wins might be the number it takes to get to the postseason. If that is the case, then the Wild Things must go 22-8 over their final 30 games to get to 52 wins. And it would take Evansville playing no better than 16-15 down the stretch and losing the season series to Washington.
“How I’ve tried to explain it is like this: We’re seven games behind Evansville in the loss column with 30 games to play. Subtract seven off that 30. That means we have 23 games left to play with,” Vaeth said. “It’s going to take us going on a run of something like 15-8 to have a legitimate chance.
“We’re trying to focus on the fact we’re only two good weeks away from behind in the thick of it. If you’re not a 50-win team, then you’re not a playoff team.
“We have to go at least 20-10 over the last 30, but the good thing is that we have 21 games left against teams that are currently in those three playoff spots.”
- Canon-McMillan graduate Cameron Weston is in his first full season in the Baltimore Orioles’ well-stocked farm system. A righthanded pitcher who was drafted in the eighth round last year out of the University of Michigan, Weston began the year on the disabled list and didn’t make his season debut until June. He is currently pitching for the Aberdeen IronBirds, the Orioles’ affiliate in the high-Class A South Atlantic League.
Weston has a 2-1 record and 1.98 ERA in seven appearances with the IronBirds. He has 33 strikeouts and only six walks in 27 1/3 innings.
One of Weston’s teammates at Aberdeen is lefty pitcher Ryan Hennen, who played for the Wild Things in 2021 and was both the Frontier League’s Pitcher of the Year and its Rookie of the Year. Hennen has a 2-0 record and 2 saves with a 2.76 ERA in 13 relief outings. Hennen has struck out 16 and walked five in 16 1/3 innings.