Breaking down the WPIAL girls basketball playoffs

Eleven local girls basketball teams qualified for the WPIAL playoffs, which begin tonight.
Here’s a look at the preliminary round and first round games for the teams and my predictions:
Ringgold (12-10) vs. Greensburg Salem (13-9) Saturday at Charleroi. Tip-off at 1 p.m.
The Rams are a puzzling team. They possess a post player who could be dominant on any given night (West Virginia recruit Marlena Schmidt), a solid point guard (Bailey Cooper) and a promising freshman who could be the next standout in the O-R’s coverage area (Ashley Briscoe).
Arguably no team has been more inconsistent than Ringgold. The Rams lost three games to teams who did not reach the WPIAL playoffs and almost lost to Class A Monessen Monday night. I can’t get a pulse on Ringgold. Schmidt, a 6-6 force, seems to still be raw in her role as a post player and the team has a tough time scoring. The Rams average just 42.2 points per game, but they have defeated some solid competition (Elizabeth Forward, Belle Vernon and Trinity).
Greensburg Salem does not have a marquee win this season, but it did play in a very tough section with Indiana. Claire Oberdorf, an incredible softball player, is averaging 26.9 points per game and the offense revolves around her. The Golden Lions have five seniors, but lack the size to match up well with Ringgold.
The key for the Rams will be to pressure GS’s guards into turnovers and they will need to capitalize in transition. Schmidt and Briscoe will control the boards, but Ringgold needs to start shooting more consistently. The winner of this one faces top-seeded Blackhawk.
Prediction: Greensburg Salem wins
No. 7 Ambridge (17-5) vs. No. 10 South Fayette (16-6) Wednesday at Moon. Tip-off at 6:30 p.m.
These are two programs on the rise in Class AAA. The Bridgers have nine freshmen, five sophomores and one senior, plus junior guard Sydney Rabold, who averages 15.9 points per game. Ambridge is averaging 64.9 points per game in an incredibly tough section. They lost to Blackhawk by four and six points in the two games against AAA’s top-seeded team.
Ambridge also defeated Bishop Canevin, Hopewell, Quigley Catholic, Beaver and North Catholic. Those are impressive wins for a young team. On the other side, South Fayette’s best year will be in 2016, but let’s not overlook the Lions, who won seven-straight to finish second in Section 5-AAA.
Junior center Emily Anderson has the ability and potential to dominant on any given night, plus South Fayette’s guards are very strong. This is one of the strongest first-round girls games.
Prediction: Ambridge wins
McGuffey (16-6) vs. Deer Lakes (12-1) Saturday at Chartiers Valley. Tip-off at 1 p.m.
This game is for the No. 14 seed and a chance to face No. 4 Indiana (20-1). Before we look ahead, let’s focus on the Highlanders and how they got here. Two weeks ago, they were playing for first place, but losing three of their last four games dropped McGuffey to fourth place in 5-AAA.
It’s pretty crazy to think that a team that defeated Ringgold, Chartiers-Houston, OLSH, Mt. Pleasant, Elizabeth Forward, South Fayette, Trinity and Belle Vernon is relying on a preliminary round game just to reach the first round.
McGuffey has no problems scoring. The Highlanders average 63.3 points per game behind Sammie Weiss (25.3 ppg) and Rachel Czulewicz. Plus, they have a solid core of role players who can shoot.
Deer Lakes had nice wins over Aliquippa, Shady Side Academy and Cornell. Plus, they are playing their best basketball lately, but McGuffey is entering the tournament with a chip on its shoulder.
Prediction: McGuffey wins.
No. 8 Trinity (16-6) vs. No. 9 Belle Vernon (16-6) Wednesday at Peters Township. Tip-off at 6:30 p.m.
I had the opportunity to see both of these teams and this is arguably the best first-round game on the schedule. The Hillers have junior center Mary Dunn, who is garnering interest from several Division I programs, as well as sophomore guard Sierra Kotchman, who has the potential to be the best player in the area.
I also like Trinity’s depth, which includes Alayna Cappelli, Natalie Cappelli, Rachel Phillis, Delaney Elling and several other players. The one concerning thing is the Hillers’ inconsistent play. You don’t know what team is going to show up and they have to play their best against Belle Vernon, which is a solid opponent.
Belle Vernon’s offense revolves around senior forward Kaitlyn Slagus, a Bucknell recruit, but they also have great depth and solid guard play from Bria Rathway, Kaitlin Thomas and Lauren Planey. BV has the potential to be great, but struggled in a loss to McGuffey.
Prediction: Trinity wins a close one
No. 7 Mohawk (16-5) vs. No. 10 Chartiers-Houston (15-7) Tuesday at West Allegheny. Tip-off at 6:30 p.m.
The Warriors have depth, experience and a few impressive victories. They finished second in Section 1-AA, but only score 47.7 points per game. Chartiers-Houston is playing great under first-year head coach Laura Montecalvo and freshman forward Alexa Williamson is averaging 22.2 points per game.
The Bucs play in a very tough section and they lost close games to tough non-section opponents like McGuffey. I like their depth, athleticism and defense (allowing only 42.4 ppg), plus Williamson will cause problems for Mohawk.
Prediction: Chartiers-Houston wins
Beth-Center (12-5) vs. Avonworth (8-13) Friday at Peters Township. Tip-off at 6:30 p.m.
The winner earns the No. 14 seed and the right to face Greensburg Central Catholic Tuesday at a site and time to be determined.
I thought Beth-Center was the most talented team in Section 3-AA, but youth played a part in its inconsistent play. Youth is also the reason for the program’s resurgence. Freshman guard Kinlee Whited is a perfect complement to senior guard Anna Bartman. The duo makes it tough for opponents to play man-to-man or to trap.
Avonworth played in a very difficult section with OLSH and Carlynton. The Lopes played a tough non-section schedule and they have size, but they are vastly inexperienced.
Prediction: Beth-Center wins
Washington (13-9) vs. Shenango (12-9) Friday at North Catholic. Tip-off at 6:30 p.m.
The Prexies won Section 3-AA despite inconsistent play down the stretch, but they do have a formidable trio in Tajah Gordon, Mikala Maltony and Taylor Ellis. Wash High also has the advantage of playing a tougher non-section schedule.
Neither team has a standout player, but I believe Gordon has the ability to take over a game and Wash High will need her to if they want to advance.
The winner grabs the No. 12 seed and the right to face OLSH.
Prediction: Wash High wins a close, low-scoring game
Charleroi (12-9) vs. West Shamokin (11-11)
The winner earns the No. 16 seed and the right to face top-seeded Seton-LaSalle.
The Cougars have a ton of potential with a very young team that was not expected to be this successful so early, but their youth showed later in the season. West Shamokin has lost three consecutive games, but did defeat Shady Side Academy and Apollo-Ridge earlier this season.
Both teams are inexperienced, but WS has a bit more size and played a tougher schedule during the regular season.
Prediction: West Shamokin wins
No. 7 Jefferson-Morgan (19-2) vs. No. 10 Cornell (14-7)
The Raiders capped the regular season with back-to-back wins over playoff teams (Aliquippa and Sewickley), plus they possess size up front with senior forward Kristen Bennett.
On the other hand, J-M’s only two losses came against No. 3 California and the Rockets have been incredible on defense. They’re allowing just 32 points per game, which is second in Class A behind Cal (23.8).
The only thing that concerns me about J-M is its reliance on the three-point shot. When the shots don’t fall, the offense can be in trouble. I’d like to see them play more aggressive and drive to the basket when the opportunity presents itself.
Prediction: Cornell wins a close one
No. 3 California (21-1) vs. No. 14 Sewickley Academy (12-8) Wednesday at Baldwin. Tip-off at 6:30 p.m.
I’ve heard great things about Sewickley Academy’s defense and their section is more difficult than Cal’s, but I don’t see many teams matching up well against the Trojans.
Kylie Huffman and Lyndsey Huhn lead the best defense in Class A, plus guards Bailey Vig and Jenna Miller are a great duo. Depth is really not a concern. Brooke Clements has looked solid coming off the bench and the other role players received a ton of experience during last season’s playoff run.
Prediction: California wins
No. 6 Riverview (15-7) vs. No. 11 Fort Cherry (11-11) Wednesday at Chartiers Valley. Tip-off at 6:30 p.m.
Fort Cherry is a very formidable defensive team with forwards Tina Bellhy and Hannah Greene, but the Rangers’ guards are inexperienced. Many had them projected to finish in second place behind California in Section 3-A, but those folks forgot how important Jenna Lucas and Rachel Bellhy were to FC’s success a year ago.
Riverview has three seniors and six juniors, including guard Sadie Buchser, who is averaging 16.3 points per game. The Raiders may lack size, but they are a balanced scoring team with plenty of depth. They also have solid wins over Serra Catholic, Avonworth, Eden Christian, Shady Side and Winchester Thurston.
Prediction: Riverview wins