Who I like: Steelers vs. Giants
This is the time of year when contenders are separated from pretenders in the NFL as the league heads into its home stretch.
And Heinz Field will host a pair of contenders Sunday when the Steelers play the New York Giants.
The Steelers have been off since their 28-7 beating of the Indianapolis Colts on Thanksgiving Day. Some have downplayed Pittsburgh’s two-game winnnning streak – which followed a four-game losing streak – because of the teams the Steelers have beaten, Cleveland and Indianapolis without QB Andrew Luck.
But the Steelers were in charge of both of those games from the opening kick and that’s what you need to do against an inferior opponent. Many of those pointing to the weakness of Pittsburgh’s opponents are the same ones who want to point to the team’s struggles or losses in previous seasons to these same kind of teams.
You can’t have it both ways.
The fact is, this season – and it’s the only one that matters – the Steelers don’t have a truly bad loss. Yes, Philadelphia isn’t playing well now, but the Eagles certainly were earlier this season, though the Steelers did not play well in that game in any phase.
We’ll give them a mulligan in that game, at least for now. If they finish this season off with that being their worst loss of the season, that’s not terrible.
That brings us back to the Giants.
At 8-3, New York’s record would suggest that it is a good team. But when you look at the New York as a whole, it doesn’t add up to 8-3.
The Giants are 22nd in the league in total offense and 21st in scoring. Defensively, they are 16th in total defense, yet sixth in points allowed per game. Considering they are minus-4 in turnover ratio, that doesn’t necessarily add up.
Some of the same things could be said about the Steelers. They are 12th in total offense and 13th in scoring and 19th in total defense but 10th in scoring defense.
Those rankings would seem to be a little more in line with the Steelers’ current 6-5 record. It does not, however, explain New York’s 8-3 record.
The Giants have been fortunate. Vegas would seem to agree. That’s why the Steelers are 6-point favorites in this game.
That does not, however, mean that the Giants can’t win this game.
In Eli Manning, they have a very capable quarterback, one who can match Ben Roethlisberger in experience, moxie and yes, even Super Bowl rings. That doesn’t happen every week.
And Odell Beckham Jr. is every bit the receiving threat that Antonio Brown is for the Steelers. In fact, the Giants’ secondary receivers are better than those of Pittsburgh.
Where the Steelers have a decided advantage on offense is with Le’Veon Bell. The Giants allow just 89 yards rushing per game but Bell leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage per game at 142.
The Giants average just 3.4 yards per rushing attempt as a team.
The Steelers should stop New York’s running game and force Manning into second and third-and-long situations. He’s been sacked just 13 times this season, so getting him on the ground won’t necessarily be the goal, but getting him to move around in the pocket will be.
Manning, unlike Roethlisberger, doesn’t throw well on the move.
Roethlisberger has 15 touchdown passes in his four home starts this season and the Steelers have scored 128 points in those four starts.
The Steelers should put some points on the board in this game and the Giants will be hard-pressed to keep up as long as the Steelers aren’t forced to use James Harrison as their long-snapper as they did in 2008, the last time New York played in Pittsburgh.
Take the Steelers to win, 31-27