Who I like: Steelers vs. Bengals

DeAngelo Williams sat out practice again on Thursday for the Steelers and with only a light practice still to come Friday before the team leaves for Cincinnati in the afternoon, it’s not looking good for the running back to play against the Bengals in Saturday’s playoff game.
What will that mean for the Steelers and their running game? A lot.
Every time somebody in the organization mentions Fitzgerald Toussaint, they add what a solid blocker he is.
That’s all well and good, but last time I checked, a running back’s No. 1 job is to, you know, run with and catch the ball.
Toussaint was a 1,000-yard rusher as a sophomore at Michigan, but wasn’t a huge factor after that, gaining 514 and 648 yards. He did start ahead of Thomas Rawls, so he does have some talent, but has just 42 yards on 18 carries this season and 54 on 24 carries in his career.
The Steelers will need more than that.
Jordan Todman has more of a proven track record with 115 career carries for 472 yards, a healthier 4.1 yards per carry average.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Todman, who had four carries for 22 yards for the Steelers this season, gets more of the work against the Bengals.
Todman also had 25 receptions for Jacksonville last season. And the Steelers could certainly use his receiving skills because Cincinnati will likely again play man coverage underneath with both safeties deep and force the Ben Roethlisberger to check down over the middle.
That led to tight end Heath Miller matching his career high with 10 receptions in both games this season against the Bengals. Cincinnati will likely play three safeties, a look they have shown a lot this season, in an effort to minimize Miller’s presence. That would make passes to the backs out of the backfield important.
The Steelers learned their lesson two weeks ago in a loss at Baltimore when they didn’t blitz Ryan Mallett, choosing instead to play coverage behind their four-man rush. That allowed Mallett to continually check down as Baltimore held the ball for 35 minutes.
Last week in Cleveland, the Steelers dialed up a number of exotic blitzes and got to Austin Davis for a season-high seven sacks.
They might not be as blitz-happy against the Bengals as they were against Cleveland – the Bengals have more downfield threats – but they will mix it up against young A.J. McCarron.
The Bengals have been very protective of McCarron in his three starts. He’s attempted 82 passes in those games and Cincinnati has run the ball 96 times. McCarron has thrown for 192, 200 and 160 yards in his three starts. And 17 of his pass attempts have gone to running backs. A.J. Green has caught 10 passes in those three games.
The Steelers would welcome that kind of attack in this game. They have been reasonably solid against the run, allowing 3.8 yards per carry. We all know how the pass defense has held up, ranking 30th in the league.
With two games now under his belt against this Cincinnati defense, expect Roethlisberger to continue to take what Cincinnati gives him and not force the ball down the field as he did in their first meeting.
Roethlisberger was 0-6 in that game with a couple of interceptions on passes of 20 or more yards downfield. Cincinnati allowed an NFL-low 39 20-yard pass plays this season. The Bengals refuse to allow the ball to go over the heads of their safeties.
In a matchup of McCarron and Roethlisberger, I’ll take the more experienced quarterback.
McCarron won’t be overwhelmed by the enormity of the game. He has, after all, won a pair of national championships.
But he’s still a guy looking to become the first NFL quarterback to lead a team to a playoff win with fewer than four career starts since Houston’s Gifford Nielsen in 1979.
Nielsen and the Oilers beat the San Diego Chargers, 17-14, as future Hall of Fame quarterback Dan Fouts threw five interceptions. Fouts had just three games with five or more interceptions in his 181 career games.
As long as Roethlisberger doesn’t go turnover crazy in this one, the Steelers, who are 14-3 all-time at Paul Brown Stadium, should win.
Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite and I’ll lay those points.
Take the Steelers to win, 26-20