Dec 24, 2017 4 min read

Will Pennsylvania’s Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf win a second term in the rapidly approaching 2018 election? Or will he become another “one-term Tom,” losing his bid for a second term, as did his immediate predecessor, Republican Tom Corbett?

Since a change in Pennsylvania’s constitution in 1968 permitted governors to seek second terms, all incumbent governors have done so, beginning with Milton Shapp in 1974. And all but one, Corbett in 2014, won re-election, most of them handily.

So, as we approach the 2018 election, we come to a fork in the road. Will we return to the familiar cycle of governors being comfortably elected to a second term? Or, will we see another first-term governor defeated for re-election?

Polls are of limited use this early. Wolf, however, does not face any opposition in the May primary election. He has attracted a field of four GOP challengers so far, including state Sen. Scott Wagner, Mike Turzai, Pennsylvania’s speaker of the House, attorney Laura Ellsworth, and businessman Paul Mango. Moreover, Wolf has had a bull’s eye painted on his back since being tagged as America’s “most liberal governor” in 2015.

While Wolf leads what appears to be a newly energized Democratic Party, his eventual Republican opponent should enjoy the still-enormous support for President Trump support in the rural areas and small towns. In this decidedly mixed milieu, three fundamental political factors are going to matter most: the national mood; the importance of “change” to voters; and the Wolf record.

The National Mood

The governor’s re-election campaign will play out against the backdrop of the 2018 midterms, which could be unusually toxic for Republicans. One strike against the GOP is the traditional midterm backlash against the president’s party. Historically, the ruling party in Washington, D.C., has lost 30 House seats and four Senate seats going back to the 1930s. Also, Trump’s historically low approval ratings loom portentously.

Many analysts believe a Democratic wave is possible. But the national mood is neither static nor predictable. With the election still more than 10 months away, much can happen to shift support toward Republicans. Nevertheless, the existing zeitgeist suggests a large Democratic wave in 2018, which would benefit Wolf and hinder his challengers.

Voters’ Desire

for Change

The electorate’s desire for change may be the wild card in Wolf’s re-election chances. Incumbents running in a pro-change atmosphere are often defeated. And the call for change can be a potent campaign theme. In fact, Trump won the presidency portraying himself as an anti-establishment candidate. The four Republicans challenging Wolf sound similar themes, contending that Wolf is just another liberal, tax-and-spend Democrat. Wagner is running as an unabashed Trump supporter.

What we don’t know is whether change appeals will draw voters in 2018, or whether ties to Trump – either stylistically or personally – will attract or repel voters. During Wolf’s first campaign, he presented himself as an antidote to the failed policies of his successor. Next year, as an incumbent, he will be much more the candidate of the status quo.

Wolf’s record

Every election is a referendum on the incumbent, and this one will be no exception. Wolf’s record is largely encapsulated within four years of battles with the GOP-dominated legislature over budgets, deficits, taxes and spending.

Wolf has not shied away from proposing increases in statewide taxes to deal with the state’s multibillion-dollar deficits. For Wolf’s first three years, this produced annual impasses between a Republican Legislature and a Democratic governor, resulting in late budgets, underfunded or unfunded programs, and a morass of short-term accounting gimmicks needed to “balance” the state’s budget.

By any fair measure, these perennial fiscal fights have ended in bloody draws, with Republicans blocking any significant new taxes, while the Wolf-led Democrats have kept the state government’s lights on. However, they have been frustrated in advancing other priority programs.

While Wolf has, Houdini-like, escaped voter wrath for the hijinks in Harrisburg, he has also failed to substantially advance anything that could be called a coherent agenda. Divided government in Pennsylvania has produced governmental paralysis, presenting perhaps Wolf’s largest threat to re-election. More than three years of virtual trench warfare with GOP legislators has produced more than three years of stalemated state government.

Wolf’s great good luck could be that apparently many Pennsylvanians like that just fine.