Who I like: Steelers vs. Miami
The playoffs are where reputations and legends are made.
Early in his career, Ben Roethlisberger’s reputation was that of a playoff killer. After losing to New England in the AFC Championship as a rookie, Roethlisberger rattled off wins in nine of his next 10 postseason starts.
That’s getting some work done.
But, here we sit, six years after Roethlisberger’s ninth win in his 10 postseason starts and the Steelers quarterback has now lost four of his past five playoff starts, beginning with the Super Bowl in 2011.
Roethlisberger is still a first-ballot Pro Football Hall of Fame player. He’s been to three Super Bowls and won two and is either already in to the top 10 or soon will be in every major passing statistic.
This, however, is a big playoffs for Roethlisberger. To become a quarterback who is mentioned when the all-time greats are talked about, Roethlisberger needs to put some additional postseason wins under his belt.
Currently, Roethlisberger is 11-6 in the postseason. That ties him with Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman for the fifth most playoff wins during the Super Bowl era.
That’s some good company to keep. And Roethlisberger’s career playoff record is the exact same as Staubach at 11-6. Aikman was 11-4 in his postseason starts.
But with two more wins, Roethlisberger can match Brett Favre for the fourth-most playoff wins. Then, Terry Bradshaw, John Elway and Peyton Manning are up next with 14.
Again, that’s some good company to keep.
Like Elway, this could be a postseason for Roethlisberger to remember not only because of what he could do, but who he could do it with.
Roethlisberger said earlier this week that he mentioned to running back Le’Veon Bell about how Elway had struggled to win a Super Bowl until he had Terrell Davis along for the ride.
Actually, it might have been Elway who was along for the ride.
The Steelers could ride Bell in similar fashion in these playoffs, which start Sunday at Heinz Field against Miami.
During Pittsburgh’s seven-game winning streak, Bell and Roethlisberger played in six of those games. Bell averaged 139.2 yards rushing per game in those six contests and Roethlisberger 243.7 passing.
That total for Roethlisberger was well below the 292.8 yards passing per game he averaged in his other eight games to start the season.
It would seem less is more for Roethlisberger in the postseason.
And the excuses of not having Bell or others heading into the playoffs is out the window. It’s win now or else for the Steelers.
That said, the Steelers need to go out on Sunday and spread the Dolphins out in their no-huddle offense. Just because the Steelers are using the no-huddle, however, doesn’t mean they have to pass exclusively out of it.
But they do need to play at a fast pace. The Dolphins will want to slow the game down to protect a defense that allowed the third-most yards in the NFL this season.
If the Steelers open the game and quickly go down and score, psychologically it could affect the Dolphins’ offensive approach.
After all, the Dolphins are very aware that Roethlisberger has thrown 20 touchdown passes in his six home starts this season.
Defensively, the Steelers need to slam the door on running back Jay Ajayi early. Ajayi had a good season. But he also 61 runs this season that went for no yards or a loss, the third-highest total in the NFL.
Look for the Steelers to attempt to slam the door on him early and try to get Dolphins into a pass-first mode.
That being said, the Dolphins likely will try to soften the Steelers up early by throwing the ball, testing Pittsburgh’s young secondary.
This secondary, however, is much different than the one that lineup up against the Dolphins in Miami. Artie Burns played only in the nickel in that game. Sean Davis didn’t play at all. Neither did Ryan Shazier.
And Shazier and Davis have been two of the most explosive defensive players for the Steelers this season.
Ladarius Green also didn’t play for the Steelers in that earlier meeting. He should be ready to play in this one after sitting out the past two games with a concussion.
In his final four games this season, Green had 13 receptions for 274 yards and a touchdown. Considering Miami is playing two backup safeties and allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, Green could be a major factor.
Miami also has given up 16 touchdown passes in its past six games, just four fewer than the Steelers allowed all season, so if the Steelers can get both Bell and Roethlisberger going in this game, they could run away with this one.
That’s why the Steelers are 10-point favorites going into this game. And that’s why Roethlisberger will break his tie with Aikman and Staubach.
The Steelers should win this game and cover.
Take Pittsburgh, 31-16.