Aug 27, 2021 5 min read

The brief period between President Joe Biden’s brave prediction in early July that a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan was highly unlikely and his subsequent comment in mid-August that there was never any way to avoid chaos during our withdrawal leads one to ask: When, exactly, did chaos become a fait accompli in his mind?

Was it after chaos erupted following the Taliban’s swift conquest of the Afghan government, military and, therefore, country?

Was it when intelligence agencies told him a few months ago that it was, in fact, entirely possible that the Taliban would conquer the country? The government didn’t just fall off a wall like some anthropomorphic egg; it collapsed in an explosion of cowardice and fear. The suddenly former Afghan president, Ashraf Ghani, wasn’t about to stick around and find out what the Taliban had in mind for his final act. Likewise, our glorious Afghan military project.

Did he get a hint when the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, Army Gen. Austin “Scott” Miller, relinquished his post in mid-July, handing off the withdrawal to Marine Gen. Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, who has been operating from Central Command headquarters in Tampa?

When, precisely, was it that Biden determined, as he recently said to ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, that there was no other way to “do what we did” without “chaos ensuing.”

Said Biden: “When you had the government of Afghanistan, the leader of that government getting in a plane and taking off and going to another country, when you saw the significant collapse of the Afghan troops we had trained, the 300,000 of them, just leaving their equipment and taking off … that’s what happened, that’s simply what happened,” the president said, apparently meaning that these events are what led to chaos.

Wait. If Biden didn’t know the troops and Afghan president might behave that way, then he would have been justified in thinking that chaos was not likely. But if he knew, or was warned, that the Taliban could easily take over, then chaos (it seems to me and, apparently, to him) would have appeared inevitable. Either way, he could have taken precautions. Looks to me like we are dealing with a giant wad of incompetence stuck to the bottom of Biden’s shoe.

There were, of course, other ways out of this, many of which have been discussed in recent days. Contingency planning is one way of putting it; leadership is another. I’d like to think that the commander in chief of the greatest military in human history might have demanded more and said something like this:

Look, General. Chaos is not an option, you got that? I want this withdrawal to look like a knife slipping into a perfectly set custard pie – smooth and clean. You understand? My mother made an amazing custard pie. You like custard pie? Most important, I don’t want a single American trooper, civilian or Afghan ally left behind. Not one. No punches pulled – understand?

That conversation didn’t seem to happen. Now, the United States is in damage control mode. Or, to borrow the irresistible words of Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, “We’re not going to rest on any laurels.”

Well, that’s a big relief. Here’s another: “We are improving on our throughput,” Kirby said.

Biden may have believed chaos was unavoidable, war being the most-direct route thereto. But he can’t have it every which way. It seems to me that one should always expect chaos under most circumstances and plan accordingly. Maybe Biden’s biggest mistake was taking the wrong advice – or ignoring what he didn’t want to imagine.

He and others have confessed to surprise that the Afghan president turned tail and vamoosed. They’ve also said they were surprised when the highly trained Afghan troops dropped their weapons, washed their hands and tried hard not to be noticed by the formidable, U.S.-armed Taliban fighters, some of whose fresh atrocities are being catalogued anew. The acts of violence the Taliban has inflicted on civilians – torture, public executions, amputations – are making the chaotic scenes at the airport look like a vacation advertisement by comparison.

None of this should be treated lightly, but hearing Biden’s not-quite-credible chaos theory, I was reminded of Théoden, the supposedly “blind” king of Rohan in J.R.R. Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings” trilogy. Tolkien’s seminal work is ever quotable and has proved time and again to be worthy resource for, among countless other things, wartime analogues.

The fictional Théoden is getting on in years and, though not literally blind, has been twisted into an unrecognizable figure under the influence of the wicked Gríma Wormtongue. Théoden can’t “see” dangers ahead as the evil Sauron’s fighters head his way. Fortunately, the magical wizard Gandalf intercedes and rescues Théoden from his virtual captivity. Rather than remaining a rattled has-been, Théoden returns to his former glory as a warrior-king, rises to the moment and dies a happy man for having given his best in the essential war against the evil Sauron. (It’s a long story.)

Wormtongues, otherwise known as political advisers, are a dime a dozen in the nation’s capital, but Gandalfs are as scarce in Washington now as those famed Georgetown dinner parties. Let’s hope Biden finds himself a good wizard before the kingdom of America is crushed by the lightweight of its own naivete. Chaos isn’t an option.

Kathleen Parker is a columnist for The Washington Post. Her email address is kathleenparker@washpost.com.